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Lincoln vs Wrexham — League One 2018

Lincoln
Lincoln
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Wrexham
Wrexham
R. Longman 61'
E. Lee 53'
5/3/2025League OneLeague One · Round 46LNER Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Lincoln38%
×Draw29%
Wrexham33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lincoln
1.16
Wrexham
1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 152 home / 23 away

creates per match

Lincoln
1.49
Wrexham
1.13

allows per match

Lincoln
0.99
Wrexham
0.83

finishing

Lincoln+0.00on par
Wrexham+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lincoln ↓

Wrexham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Lincoln or draw
67%
Lincoln or Wrexham
71%
Draw or Wrexham
62%

Winning margin

Lincoln wins by 2+
16%
Wrexham wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Lincoln 1+ goals
69%
Lincoln 2+ goals
32%
Lincoln 3+ goals
11%
Wrexham 1+ goals
65%
Wrexham 2+ goals
29%
Wrexham 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Lincoln (draw refunded)
54%
Wrexham (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lincoln at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.99 · 152 matches

Wrexham away — creates 1.13, concedes 0.83 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lincoln attack 1.49 + Wrexham defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.16

Wrexham attack 1.13 + Lincoln defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Lincoln scores more
38%
level
29%
Wrexham scores more
33%

Lincoln at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Lincoln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
M. CleworthWrexhamWrexham · D
8.2

Match Events

53'
E. Lee↳ R. Longman
61'
R. Longman↳ J. McClean
62'
Ryan Longman
64'
J. Moylan← J. Gardner
65'
James McClean
65'
T. Bayliss← B. House
71'
R. Barnett← R. Longman
72'
S. Fletcher← E. Lee
73'
Reeco Hackett-Fairchild
74'
Z. Okoro← R. Hackett
74'
F. Draper← E. Hamilton
74'
C. McGrandles← E. Erhahon
76'
T. O'Connor← O. Rathbone
85'
J. Marriott← S. Smith

Possession

56%Lincoln

Shots

18Lincoln

Pass accuracy

52%Lincoln

Statistics

LincolnWrexham
Overview
56%Possession44%
18Total Shots12
4Corners2
6Fouls12
Shots
18Total Shots12
4On Target6
8Off Target4
6Blocked2
13Inside Box9
5Outside Box3
Passing
56%Possession44%
465Total Passes374
387Accurate Passes290
83%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
4Saves3
Discipline
6Fouls12
1Yellow Cards2
1Offsides5

League One: Lincoln 0–2 Wrexham

Wrexham beat Lincoln 2-0 in League One on May 3, 2025.

Goals: E. Lee (53'), R. Longman (61').

Lincoln controlled possession (56%) and registered 18 shots to 12.

The match was played at LNER Stadium in Lincoln, Lincolnshire.