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Wrexham vs Charlton — Championship 2018

Wrexham
Wrexham
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Charlton
Charlton
J. Windass 77' (pen)
11/8/2025ChampionshipChampionship · Round 15Racecourse Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Wrexham49%
×Draw26%
Charlton26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wrexham
1.54
Charlton
1.04

Wrexham creates 48% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 21 away

creates per match

Wrexham
1.54
Charlton
0.89

allows per match

Wrexham
1.19
Charlton
1.55

finishing

Wrexham+0.35scores more
Charlton-0.03on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wrexham ↓

Charlton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Wrexham or draw
74%
Wrexham or Charlton
74%
Draw or Charlton
51%

Winning margin

Wrexham wins by 2+
25%
Charlton wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Wrexham 1+ goals
79%
Wrexham 2+ goals
45%
Wrexham 3+ goals
20%
Charlton 1+ goals
65%
Charlton 2+ goals
28%
Charlton 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Wrexham (draw refunded)
66%
Charlton (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wrexham at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.19 · 18 matches

Charlton away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.55 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wrexham attack 1.54 + Charlton defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.54

Charlton attack 0.89 + Wrexham defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Wrexham scores more
49%
level
26%
Charlton scores more
26%

Wrexham at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Wrexham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
M. CleworthWrexhamWrexham · D
7.3

Match Events

8'
Ibrahim Fullah
37'
Ben Sheaf
55'
James Bree
60'
G. Docherty← I. Fullah
68'
J. McClean← R. Longman
68'
L. O'Brien← G. Thomason
68'
J. Windass← N. Broadhead
69'
O. Hernandez← H. Knibbs
72'
Sonny Carey
77'
J. WindassPenalty
80'
M. James← B. Sheaf
84'
L. Berry← C. Coventry
90+4'
Onel Hernández
90+6'
S. Smith← K. Moore

Possession

58%Wrexham

Shots

18Wrexham

Pass accuracy

51%Wrexham

Statistics

WrexhamCharlton
Overview
58%Possession42%
18Total Shots11
2.46Expected Goals (xG)0.81
8Corners2
9Fouls10
Shots
18Total Shots11
6On Target4
9Off Target3
3Blocked4
11Inside Box6
7Outside Box5
Passing
58%Possession42%
491Total Passes357
389Accurate Passes266
79%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
4Saves5
0.83Goals Prevented0.83
Discipline
9Fouls10
1Yellow Cards4

Championship: Wrexham 1–0 Charlton

Wrexham beat Charlton 1-0 in Championship on November 8, 2025.

Goals: J. Windass (77' pen).

Wrexham controlled possession (58%) and registered 18 shots to 11.

The match was played at Racecourse Ground in Wrexham.