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Wrexham vs Charlton — League One 2018

Wrexham
Wrexham
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Charlton
Charlton
S. Smith 81', 18'
O. Rathbone 15'
4/26/2025League OneLeague One · Round 45STōK Cae Ras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Wrexham50%
×Draw26%
Charlton24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wrexham
1.51
Charlton
0.94

Wrexham creates 61% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 143 away

creates per match

Wrexham
1.78
Charlton
1.22

allows per match

Wrexham
0.65
Charlton
1.24

finishing

Wrexham+0.00on par
Charlton+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wrexham ↓

Charlton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Wrexham or draw
76%
Wrexham or Charlton
74%
Draw or Charlton
50%

Winning margin

Wrexham wins by 2+
26%
Charlton wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Wrexham 1+ goals
78%
Wrexham 2+ goals
44%
Wrexham 3+ goals
19%
Charlton 1+ goals
61%
Charlton 2+ goals
24%
Charlton 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Wrexham (draw refunded)
68%
Charlton (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wrexham at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.65 · 23 matches

Charlton away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.24 · 143 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wrexham attack 1.78 + Charlton defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.51

Charlton attack 1.22 + Wrexham defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Wrexham scores more
50%
level
26%
Charlton scores more
24%

Wrexham at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Wrexham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

37
M. JamesWrexhamWrexham · M
8.7

Match Events

15'
O. Rathbone↳ M. James
18'
S. Smith↳ M. James
42'
Tyreece Campbell
45'
Ryan Longman
53'
M. Mbick← L. Jones
63'
D. Kanu← K. Anderson
65'
Sam Smith
69'
S. Fletcher← J. Rodríguez
73'
A. Gilbert← T. Watson
81'
S. Smith↳ M. Cleworth
87'
J. Marriott← S. Smith

Possession

45%Wrexham

Shots

7Wrexham

Pass accuracy

49%Wrexham

Statistics

WrexhamCharlton
Overview
45%Possession55%
7Total Shots10
2Corners5
13Fouls8
Shots
7Total Shots10
4On Target3
2Off Target0
1Blocked7
5Inside Box8
2Outside Box2
Passing
45%Possession55%
351Total Passes416
226Accurate Passes280
64%Pass Accuracy67%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
13Fouls8
2Yellow Cards1
1Offsides2

League One: Wrexham 3–0 Charlton

Wrexham beat Charlton 3-0 in League One on April 26, 2025.

Goals: O. Rathbone (15'), S. Smith (18', 81').

Charlton controlled possession (55%) and registered 10 shots to 7.

The match was played at STōK Cae Ras in Wrecsam.