Charlton 2–2 Wrexham: Result & Stats | League One

Charlton

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Wrexham

M. Godden 90+7' (pen)

M. Gillesphey 23'

A. Cannon 72'

C. Coventry 16' (OG)

10/26/2024

League One · Round 14The Valley

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Charlton39%

×Draw28%

Wrexham33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CharltonExpected goals in this matchWrexham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.13

Charlton

1.24

Wrexham

1.13

Charlton creates 10% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 23 away

1.65

creates per match

1.13

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

Charlton

1.65

Wrexham

1.13

allows per match

Charlton

1.13

Wrexham

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Charlton+0.00on par

Wrexham+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charlton ↓

Wrexham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Charlton or draw

67%

Charlton or Wrexham

72%

Draw or Wrexham

61%

Winning margin

Charlton wins by 2+

17%

Wrexham wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Charlton 1+ goals

71%

Charlton 2+ goals

35%

Charlton 3+ goals

13%

Wrexham 1+ goals

68%

Wrexham 2+ goals

31%

Wrexham 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Charlton (draw refunded)

54%

Wrexham (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charlton at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.13 · 144 matches

Wrexham away — creates 1.13, concedes 0.83 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charlton attack 1.65 + Wrexham defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.24

Wrexham attack 1.13 + Charlton defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Charlton scores more

39%

level

28%

Wrexham scores more

33%

Charlton at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Charlton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

M. Godden

Charlton · F

7.5

Match Events

4'

R. Edmonds-Green← T. Watson

16'

C. CoventryOwn goal

23'

M. Gillesphey↳ J. Edwards

28'

Josh Edwards

46'

M. Leaburn← K. Anderson

53'

Oliver Rathbone

62'

T. Taylor← G. Docherty

62'

A. Campbell← L. Berry

66'

James McClean

68'

Dan Scarr

70'

A. Cannon← O. Rathbone

72'

A. Cannon

81'

D. Hylton← C. Coventry

84'

85'

86'

90'

90+5'

90+7'

M. GoddenPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CharltonWrexham

Overview

55%Possession45%

18Total Shots14

6Corners2

12Fouls11

Shots

18Total Shots14

7On Target2

7Off Target8

4Blocked4

10Inside Box8

8Outside Box6

Passing

55%Possession45%

438Total Passes349

314Accurate Passes236

72%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

12Fouls11

3Yellow Cards4

0Offsides1