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Wrexham vs Blackburn — Championship 2018

Wrexham
Wrexham
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Blackburn
Blackburn
M. Cleworth 90'
A. Gudjohnsen 13'
11/29/2025ChampionshipChampionship · Round 18Racecourse Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Wrexham46%
×Draw26%
Blackburn28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wrexham
1.46
Blackburn
1.08

Wrexham creates 35% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 55 away

creates per match

Wrexham
1.54
Blackburn
0.98

allows per match

Wrexham
1.19
Blackburn
1.38

finishing

Wrexham+0.35scores more
Blackburn+0.02on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wrexham ↓

Blackburn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Wrexham or draw
72%
Wrexham or Blackburn
74%
Draw or Blackburn
54%

Winning margin

Wrexham wins by 2+
22%
Blackburn wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Wrexham 1+ goals
77%
Wrexham 2+ goals
43%
Wrexham 3+ goals
18%
Blackburn 1+ goals
66%
Blackburn 2+ goals
29%
Blackburn 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Wrexham (draw refunded)
62%
Blackburn (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wrexham at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.19 · 18 matches

Blackburn away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.38 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wrexham attack 1.54 + Blackburn defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.46

Blackburn attack 0.98 + Wrexham defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Wrexham scores more
46%
level
26%
Blackburn scores more
28%

Wrexham at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Wrexham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
M. CleworthWrexhamWrexham · D
8.0

Match Events

13'
A. Gudjohnsen↳ R. Alebiosu
59'
C. Doyle← D. Scarr
59'
J. Windass← L. O'Brien
59'
G. Dobson← B. Sheaf
64'
Adam Forshaw
70'
M. Gueye← A. Gudjohnsen
75'
R. Barnett← J. McClean
75'
D. De Neve← Y. Ohashi
75'
A. Henriksson← R. Morishita
76'
Matty James
81'
Aynsley Pears
86'
S. Smith← M. James
86'
M. Baradji← A. Forshaw
90+7'
Taylor Gardner-Hickman
90'
M. Cleworth↳ N. Broadhead

Possession

65%Wrexham

Shots

16Wrexham

Pass accuracy

56%Wrexham

Statistics

WrexhamBlackburn
Overview
65%Possession35%
16Total Shots12
1.65Expected Goals (xG)0.94
7Corners7
6Fouls11
Shots
16Total Shots12
2On Target3
7Off Target3
7Blocked6
12Inside Box8
4Outside Box4
Passing
65%Possession35%
557Total Passes306
446Accurate Passes194
80%Pass Accuracy63%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
0.20Goals Prevented0.20
Discipline
6Fouls11
1Yellow Cards3
3Offsides1

Championship: Wrexham 1–1 Blackburn

Wrexham and Blackburn drew 1-1 in Championship on November 29, 2025.

Goals: A. Gudjohnsen (13'), M. Cleworth (90').

Wrexham controlled possession (65%) and registered 16 shots to 12.

The match was played at Racecourse Ground in Wrexham.