Blackburn 4–1 Wrexham: Result & Stats | League #45

Blackburn

FT

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Wrexham

S. Tronstad 59'

S. Szmodics 45+1', 32'

S. Gallagher 34'

A. Cannon 19'

1/29/2024

League #45 · 4th RoundEwood Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Blackburn45%

×Draw19%

Wrexham36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BlackburnExpected goals in this matchWrexham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.46

2.21

Blackburn

2.46

Wrexham

2.21

Blackburn creates 11% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

1.67

creates per match

1.75

2.67

allows per match

3.25

creates per match

Blackburn

1.67

Wrexham

1.75

allows per match

Blackburn

2.67

Wrexham

3.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Blackburn+0.00on par

Wrexham+0.00on par

Total goals

Over84
Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes81
No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackburn ↓

Wrexham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–24%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

84%16%3.5

68%32%4.5

49%51%

Double chance

Blackburn or draw

64%

Blackburn or Wrexham

81%

Draw or Wrexham

55%

Winning margin

Blackburn wins by 2+

27%

Wrexham wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Blackburn 1+ goals

91%

Blackburn 2+ goals

70%

Blackburn 3+ goals

44%

Wrexham 1+ goals

89%

Wrexham 2+ goals

65%

Wrexham 3+ goals

38%

Draw no bet

Blackburn (draw refunded)

55%

Wrexham (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

76%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackburn at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

Wrexham away — creates 1.75, concedes 3.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackburn attack 1.67 + Wrexham defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.46

Wrexham attack 1.75 + Blackburn defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Blackburn scores more

45%

level

19%

Wrexham scores more

36%

Blackburn at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Blackburn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

S. Szmodics

Blackburn · F

9.7

Match Events

19'

A. Cannon↳ S. Dalby

32'

S. Szmodics↳ S. Gallagher

34'

S. Gallagher↳ A. Sigurðsson

45+1'

S. Szmodics↳ S. Tronstad

51'

Jake Garrett

59'

S. Tronstad↳ S. Gallagher

65'

Y. Ayari← J. Garrett

65'

S. Telalović← S. Gallagher

65'

B. Chrisene← T. Dolan

69'

J. Mendy← R. Barnett

69'

J. Jones← A. Cannon

69'

J. Tunnicliffe← E. OConnell

78'

O. Palmer← P. Mullin

78'

J. Bickerstaff← S. Dalby

83'

T. Atcheson← J. Rankin-Costello

89'

D. Markanday← A. Sigurðsson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BlackburnWrexham

Overview

68%Possession32%

18Total Shots9

2Corners2

7Fouls6

Shots

18Total Shots9

8On Target5

8Off Target3

2Blocked1

14Inside Box3

4Outside Box6

Passing

68%Possession32%

752Total Passes343

674Accurate Passes258

90%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

7Fouls6

1Yellow Cards0

1Offsides0

Match Recap: Blackburn vs Wrexham

Blackburn beat Wrexham 4-1 in League #45 on January 29, 2024.

Goals: A. Cannon (19'), S. Szmodics (32', 45+1'), S. Gallagher (34'), S. Tronstad (59').

Blackburn controlled possession (68%) and registered 18 shots to 9.

The match was played at Ewood Park in Blackburn, Lancashire.

Blackburn vs Wrexham — League #45 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Blackburn vs Wrexham