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Blackburn vs Wrexham — Championship 2018

Blackburn
Blackburn
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Wrexham
Wrexham
O. Rathbone 38'
S. Smith 11'
1/1/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 25Ewood Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Blackburn49%
×Draw26%
Wrexham25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blackburn
1.47
Wrexham
0.96

Blackburn creates 53% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 18 away

creates per match

Blackburn
1.31
Wrexham
0.86

allows per match

Blackburn
1.06
Wrexham
1.62

finishing

Blackburn-0.27scores less
Wrexham+0.36scores more

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackburn ↓

Wrexham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Blackburn or draw
75%
Blackburn or Wrexham
74%
Draw or Wrexham
51%

Winning margin

Blackburn wins by 2+
24%
Wrexham wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Blackburn 1+ goals
77%
Blackburn 2+ goals
43%
Blackburn 3+ goals
18%
Wrexham 1+ goals
62%
Wrexham 2+ goals
25%
Wrexham 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Blackburn (draw refunded)
66%
Wrexham (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackburn at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.06 · 57 matches

Wrexham away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.62 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackburn attack 1.31 + Wrexham defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.47

Wrexham attack 0.86 + Blackburn defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Blackburn scores more
49%
level
26%
Wrexham scores more
25%

Blackburn at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Blackburn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20
O. RathboneWrexhamWrexham · F
8.5

Match Events

11'
S. Smith↳ M. James
30'
Moussa Baradji
37'
Todd Cantwell
38'
O. Rathbone↳ D. Scarr
45+1'
Sam Smith
46'
H. Pickering← R. Hedges
59'
T. Atcheson← M. Litherland
64'
George Dobson
67'
Lewis Miller
72'
B. Sheaf← M. James
75'
Sondre Tronstad
82'
N. Dlamini← A. Henriksson
84'
L. Cacace← L. O'Brien
87'
H. Ashfield← O. Rathbone

Possession

53%Blackburn

Shots

12Blackburn

Pass accuracy

51%Blackburn

Statistics

BlackburnWrexham
Overview
53%Possession47%
12Total Shots7
0.66Expected Goals (xG)0.67
4Corners8
14Fouls10
Shots
12Total Shots7
1On Target3
4Off Target3
7Blocked1
8Inside Box6
4Outside Box1
Passing
53%Possession47%
438Total Passes393
334Accurate Passes285
76%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
0.01Goals Prevented0.01
Discipline
14Fouls10
4Yellow Cards2
2Offsides2

Championship: Blackburn 0–2 Wrexham

Wrexham beat Blackburn 2-0 in Championship on January 1, 2026.

Goals: S. Smith (11'), O. Rathbone (38').

Blackburn controlled possession (53%) and registered 12 shots to 7.

The match was played at Ewood Park in Blackburn.