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Wrexham vs Birmingham — Championship 2018

Wrexham
Wrexham
Preview
19:00
Birmingham
Birmingham
8/28/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 3Racecourse Ground
45%
Wrexham
model favours
45%27%28%

Birmingham have won 5 in a row

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
55%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Wrexham45%
×Draw27%
Birmingham28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wrexham
1.43
Birmingham
1.06

Wrexham creates 35% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 36 away

creates per match

Wrexham
1.53
Birmingham
0.95

allows per match

Wrexham
1.18
Birmingham
1.32

finishing

Wrexham+0.32scores more
Birmingham-0.20scores less

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wrexham ↓

Birmingham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Wrexham or draw
72%
Wrexham or Birmingham
73%
Draw or Birmingham
55%

Winning margin

Wrexham wins by 2+
22%
Birmingham wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Wrexham 1+ goals
76%
Wrexham 2+ goals
42%
Wrexham 3+ goals
17%
Birmingham 1+ goals
65%
Birmingham 2+ goals
29%
Birmingham 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Wrexham (draw refunded)
62%
Birmingham (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wrexham at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.18 · 20 matches

Birmingham away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.32 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wrexham attack 1.53 + Birmingham defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.43

Birmingham attack 0.95 + Wrexham defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Wrexham scores more
45%
level
27%
Birmingham scores more
28%

Wrexham at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Wrexham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Birmingham are unbeaten in 7 straight
  • Birmingham have scored in 7 games running
  • Both teams scored in 3 of the last 4 meetings
  • Wrexham outscore their xG (1.6 vs 1.2 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Wrexham
Balanced
Birmingham
Balanced
48%Possession46%
77%Pass accuracyBiggest gap69%
11.3Shots11.9
1.21xG1.27
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
WrexhamBirmingham

Head-to-head

4 previous meetings

0
Wrexham
2
Draws
2
Birmingham
Avg goals: 2.5BTTS: 75%
0–21–11–11–3

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Wrexham
WDDLW
Birmingham
WWWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Wrexham host Birmingham

August 28, 2026: Wrexham take on Birmingham in Championship. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Wrexham host Birmingham at Racecourse Ground.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.