Birmingham 3–1 Wrexham: Result & Stats | League One

Birmingham

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Wrexham

T. Iwata 59'

J. Stansfield 52', 22'

J. Marriott 3'

9/16/2024

League One · Round 6St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Birmingham52%

×Draw27%

Wrexham21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BirminghamExpected goals in this matchWrexham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

0.80

Birmingham

1.44

Wrexham

0.80

Birmingham creates 80% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 23 away

2.04

creates per match

1.13

0.48

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

Birmingham

2.04

Wrexham

1.13

allows per match

Birmingham

0.48

Wrexham

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Birmingham+0.00on par

Wrexham+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Birmingham ↓

Wrexham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Birmingham or draw

79%

Birmingham or Wrexham

73%

Draw or Wrexham

48%

Winning margin

Birmingham wins by 2+

26%

Wrexham wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Birmingham 1+ goals

76%

Birmingham 2+ goals

42%

Birmingham 3+ goals

18%

Wrexham 1+ goals

55%

Wrexham 2+ goals

19%

Wrexham 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Birmingham (draw refunded)

71%

Wrexham (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Birmingham at home — creates 2.04, concedes 0.48 · 23 matches

Wrexham away — creates 1.13, concedes 0.83 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Birmingham attack 2.04 + Wrexham defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.44

Wrexham attack 1.13 + Birmingham defence 0.48 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Birmingham scores more

52%

level

27%

Wrexham scores more

21%

Birmingham at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Birmingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

A. Cochrane

Birmingham · D

7.7

Match Events

3'

J. Marriott↳ E. O'Connell

22'

J. Stansfield

36'

Christoph Klarer

52'

J. Stansfield↳ A. Cochrane

54'

Taylor Gardner-Hickman

59'

T. Iwata↳ Paik Seung-Ho

63'

P. Mullin← J. Marriott

63'

S. Fletcher← O. Palmer

64'

A. Sampsted← T. Gardner-Hickman

64'

L. Dykes← A. May

71'

A. Cannon← O. Rathbone

72'

K. Anderson← E. Hansson

72'

M. Leonard← J. Stansfield

81'

81'

81'

82'

82'

83'

84'

86'

86'

88'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BirminghamWrexham

Overview

68%Possession32%

8Total Shots5

5Corners1

13Fouls11

Shots

8Total Shots5

6On Target3

1Off Target2

1Blocked0

4Inside Box2

4Outside Box3

Passing

68%Possession32%

682Total Passes329

599Accurate Passes241

88%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls11

5Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

0Offsides2