Birmingham 2–0 Wrexham: Result & Stats

Birmingham

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Wrexham

C. Klarer 71'

C. Vicente 48'

4/12/2026

Championship · Round 42St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Birmingham54%

×Draw25%

Wrexham22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BirminghamExpected goals in this matchWrexham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

0.93

Birmingham

1.62

Wrexham

0.93

Birmingham creates 74% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 18 away

1.62

creates per match

0.86

0.99

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Birmingham

1.62

Wrexham

0.86

allows per match

Birmingham

0.99

Wrexham

1.62

-0.06on par

finishing

+0.36scores more than expected

finishing

Birmingham-0.06on par

Wrexham+0.36scores more

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Birmingham ↓

Wrexham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Birmingham or draw

78%

Birmingham or Wrexham

75%

Draw or Wrexham

46%

Winning margin

Birmingham wins by 2+

29%

Wrexham wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Birmingham 1+ goals

80%

Birmingham 2+ goals

48%

Birmingham 3+ goals

22%

Wrexham 1+ goals

61%

Wrexham 2+ goals

24%

Wrexham 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Birmingham (draw refunded)

71%

Wrexham (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Birmingham at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.99 · 32 matches

Wrexham away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.62 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Birmingham attack 1.62 + Wrexham defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.62

Wrexham attack 0.86 + Birmingham defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Birmingham scores more

54%

level

25%

Wrexham scores more

22%

Birmingham at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Birmingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31

K. Wagner

Birmingham · D

8.0

Match Events

25'

Jhon Solís

27'

Max Cleworth

46'

Paik Seung-Ho← J. E. Solis Romero

48'

C. Vicente↳ K. Wagner

63'

J. Windass← O. Rathbone

63'

N. Broadhead← M. James

71'

C. Klarer↳ Paik Seung-Ho

74'

S. Smith← K. Moore

78'

D. Gray← I. Osman

85'

T. Doyle← T. Iwata

86'

D. Keillor-Dunn← I. Kabore

88'

E. Laird← J. Stansfield

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BirminghamWrexham

Overview

45%Possession55%

15Total Shots4

1.57Expected Goals (xG)0.08

6Corners3

10Fouls11

Shots

15Total Shots4

8On Target0

4Off Target2

3Blocked2

11Inside Box1

4Outside Box3

Passing

45%Possession55%

348Total Passes446

227Accurate Passes318

65%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

0Saves6

1.02Goals Prevented1.02

Discipline

10Fouls11

1Yellow Cards1

5Offsides2