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Wrexham vs Birmingham — League One 2018

Wrexham
Wrexham
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Birmingham
Birmingham
O. Rathbone 9'
L. Dykes 18'
1/23/2025League OneLeague One · Round 28STōK Cae Ras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Wrexham41%
×Draw27%
Birmingham32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wrexham
1.32
Birmingham
1.13

Wrexham creates 17% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 23 away

creates per match

Wrexham
1.78
Birmingham
1.61

allows per match

Wrexham
0.65
Birmingham
0.87

finishing

Wrexham+0.00on par
Birmingham+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wrexham ↓

Birmingham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Wrexham or draw
68%
Wrexham or Birmingham
73%
Draw or Birmingham
59%

Winning margin

Wrexham wins by 2+
19%
Birmingham wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Wrexham 1+ goals
73%
Wrexham 2+ goals
38%
Wrexham 3+ goals
15%
Birmingham 1+ goals
68%
Birmingham 2+ goals
31%
Birmingham 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Wrexham (draw refunded)
56%
Birmingham (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wrexham at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.65 · 23 matches

Birmingham away — creates 1.61, concedes 0.87 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wrexham attack 1.78 + Birmingham defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.32

Birmingham attack 1.61 + Wrexham defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Wrexham scores more
41%
level
27%
Birmingham scores more
32%

Wrexham at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Wrexham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20
O. RathboneWrexhamWrexham · M
7.7

Match Events

9'
O. Rathbone
18'
L. Dykes↳ M. Leonard
66'
K. Anderson← S. Wright
69'
Oliver Rathbone
69'
P. Mullin← E. Lee
69'
S. Fletcher← O. Palmer
83'
L. Jutkiewicz← A. May
86'
K. Bielik← J. Stansfield

Possession

43%Wrexham

Shots

13Wrexham

Pass accuracy

46%Wrexham

Statistics

WrexhamBirmingham
Overview
43%Possession57%
13Total Shots7
5Corners5
13Fouls11
Shots
13Total Shots7
7On Target1
3Off Target3
3Blocked3
8Inside Box3
5Outside Box4
Passing
43%Possession57%
300Total Passes422
190Accurate Passes317
63%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
0Saves5
Discipline
13Fouls11
1Yellow Cards0
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Wrexham vs Birmingham

Wrexham and Birmingham drew 1-1 in League One on January 23, 2025.

Goals: O. Rathbone (9'), L. Dykes (18').

Birmingham controlled possession (57%) and registered 7 shots to 13.

The match was played at STōK Cae Ras in Wrecsam.