Wotton 1–2 UWI Blackbirds: Result & Stats

Wotton

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

UWI Blackbirds

1/31/2024

Premier League · Round 1Wildey Turf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Wotton32%

×Draw23%

UWI Blackbirds45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WottonExpected goals in this matchUWI Blackbirds

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.85

Wotton

1.54

UWI Blackbirds

1.85

UWI Blackbirds creates 20% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 37 away

1.49

creates per match

1.59

2.11

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Wotton

1.49

UWI Blackbirds

1.59

allows per match

Wotton

2.11

UWI Blackbirds

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wotton+0.00on par

UWI Blackbirds+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wotton ↓

UWI Blackbirds →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Wotton or draw

55%

Wotton or UWI Blackbirds

77%

Draw or UWI Blackbirds

68%

Winning margin

Wotton wins by 2+

15%

UWI Blackbirds wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Wotton 1+ goals

79%

Wotton 2+ goals

45%

Wotton 3+ goals

20%

UWI Blackbirds 1+ goals

84%

UWI Blackbirds 2+ goals

55%

UWI Blackbirds 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Wotton (draw refunded)

42%

UWI Blackbirds (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wotton at home — creates 1.49, concedes 2.11 · 37 matches

UWI Blackbirds away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.59 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wotton attack 1.49 + UWI Blackbirds defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.54

UWI Blackbirds attack 1.59 + Wotton defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Wotton scores more

32%

level

23%

UWI Blackbirds scores more

45%

UWI Blackbirds at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "UWI Blackbirds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff