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Wotton vs UWI Blackbirds — Premier League 2026

Wotton
Wotton
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
UWI Blackbirds
UWI Blackbirds
2/8/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Wotton29%
×Draw24%
UWI Blackbirds48%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wotton
1.27
UWI Blackbirds
1.71

UWI Blackbirds creates 35% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 10 away

creates per match

Wotton
1.25
UWI Blackbirds
1.00

allows per match

Wotton
2.42
UWI Blackbirds
1.30

finishing

Wotton+0.00on par
UWI Blackbirds+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wotton ↓

UWI Blackbirds →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Wotton or draw
52%
Wotton or UWI Blackbirds
76%
Draw or UWI Blackbirds
71%

Winning margin

Wotton wins by 2+
12%
UWI Blackbirds wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Wotton 1+ goals
72%
Wotton 2+ goals
36%
Wotton 3+ goals
14%
UWI Blackbirds 1+ goals
82%
UWI Blackbirds 2+ goals
51%
UWI Blackbirds 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Wotton (draw refunded)
37%
UWI Blackbirds (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wotton at home — creates 1.25, concedes 2.42 · 12 matches

UWI Blackbirds away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wotton attack 1.25 + UWI Blackbirds defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.27

UWI Blackbirds attack 1.00 + Wotton defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Wotton scores more
29%
level
24%
UWI Blackbirds scores more
48%

UWI Blackbirds at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "UWI Blackbirds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Wotton 0–4 UWI Blackbirds

UWI Blackbirds beat Wotton 4-0 in Premier League on February 8, 2026.