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Wotton vs UWI Blackbirds — Premier League 2024

Wotton
Wotton
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
UWI Blackbirds
UWI Blackbirds
3/5/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 4Dover Playing Fields

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Wotton27%
×Draw22%
UWI Blackbirds50%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wotton
1.35
UWI Blackbirds
1.90

UWI Blackbirds creates 41% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 19 away

creates per match

Wotton
1.29
UWI Blackbirds
1.47

allows per match

Wotton
2.33
UWI Blackbirds
1.42

finishing

Wotton+0.00on par
UWI Blackbirds+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wotton ↓

UWI Blackbirds →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Wotton or draw
50%
Wotton or UWI Blackbirds
78%
Draw or UWI Blackbirds
73%

Winning margin

Wotton wins by 2+
12%
UWI Blackbirds wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Wotton 1+ goals
74%
Wotton 2+ goals
39%
Wotton 3+ goals
15%
UWI Blackbirds 1+ goals
85%
UWI Blackbirds 2+ goals
56%
UWI Blackbirds 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Wotton (draw refunded)
35%
UWI Blackbirds (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wotton at home — creates 1.29, concedes 2.33 · 21 matches

UWI Blackbirds away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.42 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wotton attack 1.29 + UWI Blackbirds defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.35

UWI Blackbirds attack 1.47 + Wotton defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Wotton scores more
27%
level
22%
UWI Blackbirds scores more
50%

UWI Blackbirds at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "UWI Blackbirds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Wotton 0–3 UWI Blackbirds

UWI Blackbirds beat Wotton 3-0 in Premier League on March 5, 2025.

The match was played at Dover Playing Fields in Dover.