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Worthing vs Hemel Hempstead Town — League #51 2026

Worthing
Worthing
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Hemel Hempstead Town
Hemel Hempstead Town
T. King 90+5'
J. Colbran 58'
B. Dolaghan 40', 13'
11/8/2025League #51League #51 · South - 17Sussex Transport Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Worthing80%
×Draw13%
Hemel Hempstead Town8%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Worthing
2.87
Hemel Hempstead Town
0.78

Worthing creates 268% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 3 away

creates per match

Worthing
2.73
Hemel Hempstead Town
1.00

allows per match

Worthing
0.55
Hemel Hempstead Town
3.00

finishing

Worthing+0.00on par
Hemel Hempstead Town+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Worthing ↓

Hemel Hempstead Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–16%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Worthing or draw
92%
Worthing or Hemel Hempstead Town
87%
Draw or Hemel Hempstead Town
20%

Winning margin

Worthing wins by 2+
59%
Hemel Hempstead Town wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Worthing 1+ goals
94%
Worthing 2+ goals
77%
Worthing 3+ goals
53%
Hemel Hempstead Town 1+ goals
54%
Hemel Hempstead Town 2+ goals
18%
Hemel Hempstead Town 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Worthing (draw refunded)
91%
Hemel Hempstead Town (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Worthing at home — creates 2.73, concedes 0.55 · 11 matches

Hemel Hempstead Town away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Worthing attack 2.73 + Hemel Hempstead Town defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.87

Hemel Hempstead Town attack 1.00 + Worthing defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Worthing scores more
80%
level
13%
Hemel Hempstead Town scores more
8%

Worthing at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Worthing will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
B. Dolaghan
40'
B. Dolaghan
58'
J. Colbran
90+5'
T. King

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Worthing vs Hemel Hempstead Town

Worthing beat Hemel Hempstead Town 4-0 in League #51 on November 8, 2025.

Goals: B. Dolaghan (13', 40'), J. Colbran (58'), T. King (90+5').

The match was played at Sussex Transport Community Stadium in Worthing, West Sussex.