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Hemel Hempstead Town vs Worthing — League #51 2026

Hemel Hempstead Town
Hemel Hempstead Town
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Worthing
Worthing
R. Campbell 55'
2/14/2026League #51League #51 · South - 33Focus Community Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Hemel Hempstead Town37%
×Draw25%
Worthing38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hemel Hempstead Town
1.39
Worthing
1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 20 away

creates per match

Hemel Hempstead Town
1.43
Worthing
1.55

allows per match

Hemel Hempstead Town
1.29
Worthing
1.35

finishing

Hemel Hempstead Town+0.00on par
Worthing+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hemel Hempstead Town ↓

Worthing →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Hemel Hempstead Town or draw
62%
Hemel Hempstead Town or Worthing
75%
Draw or Worthing
63%

Winning margin

Hemel Hempstead Town wins by 2+
17%
Worthing wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Hemel Hempstead Town 1+ goals
75%
Hemel Hempstead Town 2+ goals
40%
Hemel Hempstead Town 3+ goals
16%
Worthing 1+ goals
76%
Worthing 2+ goals
41%
Worthing 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Hemel Hempstead Town (draw refunded)
49%
Worthing (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hemel Hempstead Town at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Worthing away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.35 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hemel Hempstead Town attack 1.43 + Worthing defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.39

Worthing attack 1.55 + Hemel Hempstead Town defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Hemel Hempstead Town scores more
37%
level
25%
Worthing scores more
38%

Worthing at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Worthing will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

55'
R. Campbell

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #51: Hemel Hempstead Town 1–0 Worthing

Hemel Hempstead Town beat Worthing 1-0 in League #51 on February 14, 2026.

Goals: R. Campbell (55').

The match was played at Focus Community Arena in Hemel Hempstead, Hertfordshire.