Hemel Hempstead Town vs Worthing — League #51 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 5+ matches
Hemel Hempstead Town46%
Worthing26%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Hemel Hempstead Town creates 43% more chances
Season form · 5 home / 17 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under60
- Over40
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No55
- Yes45
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Hemel Hempstead Town ↓
Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Hemel Hempstead Town at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches
Worthing away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Hemel Hempstead Town attack 1.40 + Worthing defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.34
Worthing attack 1.47 + Hemel Hempstead Town defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.94
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 46%?"
Hemel Hempstead Town at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 46% does not mean "Hemel Hempstead Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Worthing substitutes
Worthing
Farnborough
Salisbury
Tonbridge Angels
Maidenhead
TorquayHemel Hempstead Town
Dorking Wanderers
Maidstone Utd
Chesham United
AFC Hornchurch
Weston-super-Mare
Hampton & Richmond
Enfield Town
Bath City
Dover
Slough Town
Dagenham & Redbridge
Chippenham Town
Eastbourne Borough
AFC Totton
Ebbsfleet United
Chelmsford City
HorshamIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Hemel Hempstead Town host Worthing on Saturday, 23 December 2023 at 15:00. The match is part of the League #51 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Hemel Hempstead Town vs Worthing
Hemel Hempstead Town beat Worthing 2-0 in League #51 on December 23, 2023.
Goals: G. Williams (45+1'), T. Whittaker (51').
The match was played at Vauxhall Road in Hemel Hempstead, Hertfordshire.