Wolves 2–3 Burnley: Result & Stats | Premier League

Wolves

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 2

Burnley

M. Munetsi 45'

J. S. Larsen 42' (pen)

L. Foster 90'

Z. Flemming 30', 14'

10/26/2025

Premier League · Round 9Molineux Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Wolves49%

×Draw25%

Burnley26%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WolvesExpected goals in this matchBurnley

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.08

Wolves

1.58

Burnley

1.08

Wolves creates 46% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 20 away

1.08

creates per match

0.72

1.44

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Wolves

1.08

Burnley

0.72

allows per match

Wolves

1.44

Burnley

2.08

-0.01on par

finishing

+0.33scores more than expected

finishing

Wolves-0.01on par

Burnley+0.33scores more

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wolves ↓

Burnley →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Wolves or draw

74%

Wolves or Burnley

75%

Draw or Burnley

51%

Winning margin

Wolves wins by 2+

25%

Burnley wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Wolves 1+ goals

79%

Wolves 2+ goals

47%

Wolves 3+ goals

21%

Burnley 1+ goals

66%

Burnley 2+ goals

29%

Burnley 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Wolves (draw refunded)

65%

Burnley (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wolves at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.44 · 29 matches

Burnley away — creates 0.72, concedes 2.08 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wolves attack 1.08 + Burnley defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.58

Burnley attack 0.72 + Wolves defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Wolves scores more

49%

level

25%

Burnley scores more

26%

Wolves at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Wolves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

Z. Flemming↳ Q. Hartman

30'

Z. Flemming↳ Q. Hartman

35'

Jean-Ricner Bellegarde

42'

J. S. LarsenPenalty

45'

M. Munetsi↳ L. Krejci

68'

Hwang Hee-Chan← J. Arias

68'

Joao Gomes← Andre

69'

J. Laurent← J. Bruun Larsen

76'

J. Tchatchoua← K. Hoever

77'

L. Foster← J. Anthony

84'

D. M. Wolfe← H. Bueno

84'

T. Arokodare← M. Munetsi

90+3'

H. Mejbri← Florentino

90+3'

H. Ekdal← L. Ugochukwu

90'

L. Foster↳ H. Mejbri

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WolvesBurnley

Overview

57%Possession43%

15Total Shots11

2.28Expected Goals (xG)1.43

4Corners3

12Fouls7

Shots

15Total Shots11

7On Target7

6Off Target1

2Blocked3

10Inside Box6

5Outside Box5

Passing

57%Possession43%

493Total Passes391

414Accurate Passes308

84%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

4Saves5

0.30Goals Prevented0.30

Discipline

12Fouls7

1Yellow Cards0

2Offsides2