Burnley 1–1 Wolves: Result & Stats | Premier League

Burnley

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Wolves

5/24/2026

Premier League

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Burnley37%

×Draw26%

Wolves37%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BurnleyExpected goals in this matchWolves

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

Burnley

1.36

Wolves

1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 28 away

0.96

creates per match

0.79

1.94

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Burnley

0.96

Wolves

0.79

allows per match

Burnley

1.94

Wolves

1.76

-0.06on par

finishing

-0.29scores less than expected

finishing

Burnley-0.06on par

Wolves-0.29scores less

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burnley ↓

Wolves →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Burnley or draw

63%

Burnley or Wolves

74%

Draw or Wolves

63%

Winning margin

Burnley wins by 2+

17%

Wolves wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Burnley 1+ goals

74%

Burnley 2+ goals

39%

Burnley 3+ goals

16%

Wolves 1+ goals

74%

Wolves 2+ goals

39%

Wolves 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Burnley (draw refunded)

50%

Wolves (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burnley at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.94 · 20 matches

Wolves away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.76 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burnley attack 0.96 + Wolves defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.36

Wolves attack 0.79 + Burnley defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Burnley scores more

37%

level

26%

Wolves scores more

37%

Burnley at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Burnley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BurnleyWolves

Overview

70%Possession30%

16Total Shots16

0.98Expected Goals (xG)2.09

7Corners7

10Fouls11

Shots

16Total Shots16

8On Target4

2Off Target5

6Blocked7

7Inside Box10

9Outside Box6

Passing

70%Possession30%

569Total Passes225

498Accurate Passes163

88%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

3Saves7

0.22Goals Prevented0.22

Discipline

10Fouls11

2Yellow Cards2

0Offsides3