Burnley 1–0 Wolves: Result & Stats | Premier League

Burnley

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Wolves

M. Vydra 62'

4/24/2022

Premier League · Round 34Turf Moor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Burnley35%

×Draw26%

Wolves39%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BurnleyExpected goals in this matchWolves

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.38

Burnley

1.28

Wolves

1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 21 away

0.96

creates per match

0.82

1.94

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Burnley

0.96

Wolves

0.82

allows per match

Burnley

1.94

Wolves

1.60

-0.06on par

finishing

-0.34scores less than expected

finishing

Burnley-0.06on par

Wolves-0.34scores less

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burnley ↓

Wolves →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Burnley or draw

61%

Burnley or Wolves

74%

Draw or Wolves

65%

Winning margin

Burnley wins by 2+

15%

Wolves wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Burnley 1+ goals

72%

Burnley 2+ goals

37%

Burnley 3+ goals

14%

Wolves 1+ goals

75%

Wolves 2+ goals

40%

Wolves 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Burnley (draw refunded)

47%

Wolves (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burnley at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.94 · 20 matches

Wolves away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.60 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burnley attack 0.96 + Wolves defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.28

Wolves attack 0.82 + Burnley defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Burnley scores more

35%

level

26%

Wolves scores more

39%

Wolves at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Wolves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

N. Pope

Burnley · G

8.0

Match Events

33'

Matěj Vydra

62'

M. Vydra↳ W. Weghorst

64'

A. Barnes← J. Rodriguez

67'

Pedro Neto← Fábio Silva

71'

A. Lennon← M. Vydra

77'

Charlie Taylor

79'

Trincão← R. Saïss

83'

James TarkowskiCard reviewed

85'

K. Long← D. McNeil

90+4'

Ashley Barnes

90+4'

Pedro Neto

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BurnleyWolves

Overview

36%Possession64%

14Total Shots10

3Corners6

8Fouls7

Shots

14Total Shots10

5On Target4

5Off Target1

4Blocked5

10Inside Box6

4Outside Box4

Passing

36%Possession64%

324Total Passes590

240Accurate Passes488

74%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

8Fouls7

3Yellow Cards1

5Offsides2