Wolves 1–1 Burnley: Result & Stats | Premier League

Wolves

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Burnley

R. Jiménez 90+7' (pen)

A. Barnes 13'

8/25/2019

Premier League · Round 3Molineux Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Wolves49%

×Draw25%

Burnley26%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WolvesExpected goals in this matchBurnley

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.11

Wolves

1.60

Burnley

1.11

Wolves creates 44% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 21 away

1.11

creates per match

0.79

1.43

allows per match

2.10

creates per match

Wolves

1.11

Burnley

0.79

allows per match

Wolves

1.43

Burnley

2.10

-0.08on par

finishing

+0.40scores more than expected

finishing

Wolves-0.08on par

Burnley+0.40scores more

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wolves ↓

Burnley →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Wolves or draw

74%

Wolves or Burnley

75%

Draw or Burnley

51%

Winning margin

Wolves wins by 2+

25%

Burnley wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Wolves 1+ goals

80%

Wolves 2+ goals

47%

Wolves 3+ goals

22%

Burnley 1+ goals

67%

Burnley 2+ goals

30%

Burnley 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Wolves (draw refunded)

65%

Burnley (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wolves at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.43 · 31 matches

Burnley away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.10 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wolves attack 1.11 + Burnley defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.60

Burnley attack 0.79 + Wolves defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Wolves scores more

49%

level

25%

Burnley scores more

26%

Wolves at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Wolves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

R. Jiménez

Wolves · F

7.8

Match Events

13'

A. Barnes↳ D. McNeil

59'

James Tarkowski

59'

L. Dendoncker← João Moutinho

66'

A. Lennon← J. Guðmundsson

67'

Pedro Neto← M. Gibbs-White

76'

Adama Traoré← M. Doherty

78'

J. Rodriguez← A. Barnes

86'

J. Hendrick← D. McNeil

88'

Aaron Lennon

90+7'

R. JiménezPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WolvesBurnley

Overview

65%Possession35%

17Total Shots13

4Corners3

9Fouls11

Shots

17Total Shots13

2On Target4

8Off Target6

7Blocked3

9Inside Box8

8Outside Box5

Passing

65%Possession35%

586Total Passes306

470Accurate Passes202

80%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls11

0Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1