Wolfsburg U19 2–0 Osnabrück U19: Result & Stats

Wolfsburg U19

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Osnabrück U19

L. Jastremski 58'

C. Herrmann 4'

4/27/2019

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 24AOK Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Wolfsburg U1969%

×Draw17%

Osnabrück U1915%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wolfsburg U19Expected goals in this matchOsnabrück U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.72

1.21

Wolfsburg U19

2.72

Osnabrück U19

1.21

Wolfsburg U19 creates 125% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 73 away

2.93

creates per match

1.29

1.14

allows per match

2.51

creates per match

Wolfsburg U19

2.93

Osnabrück U19

1.29

allows per match

Wolfsburg U19

1.14

Osnabrück U19

2.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wolfsburg U19+0.00on par

Osnabrück U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wolfsburg U19 ↓

Osnabrück U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Wolfsburg U19 or draw

85%

Wolfsburg U19 or Osnabrück U19

83%

Draw or Osnabrück U19

31%

Winning margin

Wolfsburg U19 wins by 2+

48%

Osnabrück U19 wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Wolfsburg U19 1+ goals

93%

Wolfsburg U19 2+ goals

75%

Wolfsburg U19 3+ goals

50%

Osnabrück U19 1+ goals

70%

Osnabrück U19 2+ goals

34%

Osnabrück U19 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Wolfsburg U19 (draw refunded)

82%

Osnabrück U19 (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wolfsburg U19 at home — creates 2.93, concedes 1.14 · 74 matches

Osnabrück U19 away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.51 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wolfsburg U19 attack 2.93 + Osnabrück U19 defence 2.51 → ÷2 → 2.72

Osnabrück U19 attack 1.29 + Wolfsburg U19 defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Wolfsburg U19 scores more

69%

level

17%

Osnabrück U19 scores more

15%

Wolfsburg U19 at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Wolfsburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

C. Herrmann

46'

L. Jastremski← S. Messeguem

46'

T. Berger← M. Saracevic

58'

L. Jastremski

61'

I. Šarčević← P. König

61'

M. Augé← D. Lovrić

70'

E. Curic← H. Berentzen

72'

M. Brandt← C. Herrmann

83'

J. Mittmann← E. Ghassan

Wolfsburg

Osnabrück

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Herrmann

▼

König

Pohlmann

Manager: T. Reis

46'▲L. Jastremski←▼S. Messeguem

46'▲T. Berger←▼M. Saracevic

61'▲I. Šarčević←▼P. König

72'▲M. Brandt←▼C. Herrmann

Wolfsburg U19 substitutes

JastremskiBergerŠarčevićBrandtKastenSaulDjalo

Manager: M. Tredup

61'▲M. Augé←▼D. Lovrić

70'▲E. Curic←▼H. Berentzen

83'▲J. Mittmann←▼E. Ghassan

Osnabrück U19 substitutes

AugéCuricMittmannPopescuFiratBovenschulte

Match Recap: Wolfsburg U19 vs Osnabrück U19

Wolfsburg U19 beat Osnabrück U19 2-0 in U19 Bundesliga on April 27, 2019.

Goals: C. Herrmann (4'), L. Jastremski (58').

The match was played at AOK Stadion in Wolfsburg.

Wolfsburg U19 vs Osnabrück U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Wolfsburg U19 vs Osnabrück U19