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Osnabrück U19 vs Wolfsburg U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Osnabrück U19
Osnabrück U19
CANC
11:00
Wolfsburg U19
Wolfsburg U19
4/17/2021U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 17Sportpark Illoshöhe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Osnabrück U1922%
×Draw20%
Wolfsburg U1958%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Osnabrück U19
1.26
Wolfsburg U19
2.17

Wolfsburg U19 creates 72% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 75 away

creates per match

Osnabrück U19
1.31
Wolfsburg U19
2.36

allows per match

Osnabrück U19
1.98
Wolfsburg U19
1.21

finishing

Osnabrück U19+0.00on par
Wolfsburg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osnabrück U19 ↓

Wolfsburg U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Osnabrück U19 or draw
42%
Osnabrück U19 or Wolfsburg U19
80%
Draw or Wolfsburg U19
78%

Winning margin

Osnabrück U19 wins by 2+
9%
Wolfsburg U19 wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Osnabrück U19 1+ goals
72%
Osnabrück U19 2+ goals
36%
Osnabrück U19 3+ goals
13%
Wolfsburg U19 1+ goals
89%
Wolfsburg U19 2+ goals
64%
Wolfsburg U19 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Osnabrück U19 (draw refunded)
27%
Wolfsburg U19 (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osnabrück U19 at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.98 · 54 matches

Wolfsburg U19 away — creates 2.36, concedes 1.21 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osnabrück U19 attack 1.31 + Wolfsburg U19 defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.26

Wolfsburg U19 attack 2.36 + Osnabrück U19 defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Osnabrück U19 scores more
22%
level
20%
Wolfsburg U19 scores more
58%

Wolfsburg U19 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Wolfsburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Osnabrück U19 host Wolfsburg U19

April 17, 2021: Osnabrück U19 take on Wolfsburg U19 in U19 Bundesliga. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Osnabrück U19 host Wolfsburg U19 at Sportpark Illoshöhe.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.