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Wolfsburg U19 vs Osnabrück U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Wolfsburg U19
Wolfsburg U19
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Osnabrück U19
Osnabrück U19
2/24/2024U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 18AOK Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Wolfsburg U1966%
×Draw17%
Osnabrück U1916%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wolfsburg U19
2.59
Osnabrück U19
1.23

Wolfsburg U19 creates 111% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 50 away

creates per match

Wolfsburg U19
2.73
Osnabrück U19
1.22

allows per match

Wolfsburg U19
1.25
Osnabrück U19
2.46

finishing

Wolfsburg U19+0.00on par
Osnabrück U19+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wolfsburg U19 ↓

Osnabrück U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Wolfsburg U19 or draw
84%
Wolfsburg U19 or Osnabrück U19
83%
Draw or Osnabrück U19
34%

Winning margin

Wolfsburg U19 wins by 2+
45%
Osnabrück U19 wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Wolfsburg U19 1+ goals
92%
Wolfsburg U19 2+ goals
73%
Wolfsburg U19 3+ goals
47%
Osnabrück U19 1+ goals
71%
Osnabrück U19 2+ goals
35%
Osnabrück U19 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Wolfsburg U19 (draw refunded)
80%
Osnabrück U19 (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wolfsburg U19 at home — creates 2.73, concedes 1.25 · 67 matches

Osnabrück U19 away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.46 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wolfsburg U19 attack 2.73 + Osnabrück U19 defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.59

Osnabrück U19 attack 1.22 + Wolfsburg U19 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Wolfsburg U19 scores more
66%
level
17%
Osnabrück U19 scores more
16%

Wolfsburg U19 at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Wolfsburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Wolfsburg U19 4 – 0 Osnabrück U19

Wolfsburg U19 beat Osnabrück U19 4-0 in U19 Bundesliga on February 24, 2024.

The match was played at AOK Stadion in Wolfsburg.