Wolfsburg U19 5–1 Eintracht Braunsch U19

Wolfsburg U19

FT

5 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Eintracht Braunsch U19

D. Nieland 87', 73'

Y. Otto 81'

Omar Marmoush 44', 40'

M. Franke 47'

3/3/2018

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 20Porschestadion Nebenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Wolfsburg U1968%

×Draw17%

Eintracht Braunsch U1916%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wolfsburg U19Expected goals in this matchEintracht Braunsch U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.72

1.26

Wolfsburg U19

2.72

Eintracht Braunsch U19

1.26

Wolfsburg U19 creates 116% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 55 away

2.93

creates per match

1.38

1.14

allows per match

2.51

creates per match

Wolfsburg U19

2.93

Eintracht Braunsch U19

1.38

allows per match

Wolfsburg U19

1.14

Eintracht Braunsch U19

2.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wolfsburg U19+0.00on par

Eintracht Braunsch U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wolfsburg U19 ↓

Eintracht Braunsch U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Wolfsburg U19 or draw

84%

Wolfsburg U19 or Eintracht Braunsch U19

83%

Draw or Eintracht Braunsch U19

32%

Winning margin

Wolfsburg U19 wins by 2+

47%

Eintracht Braunsch U19 wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Wolfsburg U19 1+ goals

93%

Wolfsburg U19 2+ goals

75%

Wolfsburg U19 3+ goals

50%

Eintracht Braunsch U19 1+ goals

72%

Eintracht Braunsch U19 2+ goals

36%

Eintracht Braunsch U19 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Wolfsburg U19 (draw refunded)

81%

Eintracht Braunsch U19 (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wolfsburg U19 at home — creates 2.93, concedes 1.14 · 74 matches

Eintracht Braunsch U19 away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.51 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wolfsburg U19 attack 2.93 + Eintracht Braunsch U19 defence 2.51 → ÷2 → 2.72

Eintracht Braunsch U19 attack 1.38 + Wolfsburg U19 defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Wolfsburg U19 scores more

68%

level

17%

Eintracht Braunsch U19 scores more

16%

Wolfsburg U19 at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Wolfsburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'

44'

46'

47'

57'

T. Heike← H. Mittelstädt

62'

R. Tachie← Omar Marmoush

73'

M. Saracevic← M. Klump

73'

D. Nieland

81'

R. Kölle← M. Janke

81'

F. Went← A. Vedamanikam

81'

Y. Otto

85'

B. Barry← S. Abifade

87'

D. Nieland

90'

H. Bartels← R. Henning

Wolfsburg

Eintracht

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽2

▼

Marmoush

▼

Janke

Manager: T. Reis

46'▲D. Nieland←▼D. Marx

62'▲R. Tachie←▼Omar Marmoush

73'▲M. Saracevic←▼M. Klump

81'▲R. Kölle←▼M. Janke

Wolfsburg U19 substitutes

NielandTachieSaracevicKölleBrandt

Manager: S. Eickel

57'▲T. Heike←▼H. Mittelstädt

81'▲F. Went←▼A. Vedamanikam

85'▲B. Barry←▼S. Abifade

90'▲H. Bartels←▼R. Henning

Eintracht Braunsch U19 substitutes

HeikeWentBarryBartelsKonertBersePetereit

Match Recap: Wolfsburg U19 vs Eintracht Braunsch U19

Wolfsburg U19 beat Eintracht Braunsch U19 5-1 in U19 Bundesliga on March 3, 2018.

Goals: Omar Marmoush (40', 44'), M. Franke (47'), D. Nieland (73', 87'), Y. Otto (81').

The match was played at Porschestadion Nebenplatz in Wolfsburg.

Wolfsburg U19 vs Eintracht Braunsch U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Wolfsburg U19 vs Eintracht Braunsch U19