Eintracht Braunsch U19 1–2 Wolfsburg U19

Eintracht Braunsch U19

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Wolfsburg U19

A. Vojtenko 70'

C. Herrmann 90+2'

D. Nieland 27'

9/23/2017

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 7Sportpark Kennel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Eintracht Braunsch U1926%

×Draw19%

Wolfsburg U1955%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eintracht Braunsch U19Expected goals in this matchWolfsburg U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

2.45

Eintracht Braunsch U19

1.66

Wolfsburg U19

2.45

Wolfsburg U19 creates 48% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 78 away

2.13

creates per match

2.40

2.50

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Eintracht Braunsch U19

2.13

Wolfsburg U19

2.40

allows per match

Eintracht Braunsch U19

2.50

Wolfsburg U19

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eintracht Braunsch U19+0.00on par

Wolfsburg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Braunsch U19 ↓

Wolfsburg U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Eintracht Braunsch U19 or draw

45%

Eintracht Braunsch U19 or Wolfsburg U19

81%

Draw or Wolfsburg U19

74%

Winning margin

Eintracht Braunsch U19 wins by 2+

12%

Wolfsburg U19 wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Eintracht Braunsch U19 1+ goals

81%

Eintracht Braunsch U19 2+ goals

49%

Eintracht Braunsch U19 3+ goals

23%

Wolfsburg U19 1+ goals

91%

Wolfsburg U19 2+ goals

70%

Wolfsburg U19 3+ goals

44%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Braunsch U19 (draw refunded)

32%

Wolfsburg U19 (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Braunsch U19 at home — creates 2.13, concedes 2.50 · 54 matches

Wolfsburg U19 away — creates 2.40, concedes 1.19 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Braunsch U19 attack 2.13 + Wolfsburg U19 defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.66

Wolfsburg U19 attack 2.40 + Eintracht Braunsch U19 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Eintracht Braunsch U19 scores more

26%

level

19%

Wolfsburg U19 scores more

55%

Wolfsburg U19 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Wolfsburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

70'

71'

77'

78'

C. Herrmann← J. Yeboah

86'

H. Mittelstädt← T. Töpken

90'

B. Barry← M. Schleef

90'

A. El-Haibi← D. Nieland

90+2'

C. Herrmann

Eintracht

Wolfsburg

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: S. Eickel

77'▲L. Bürger←▼M. Franke

86'▲H. Mittelstädt←▼T. Töpken

90'▲B. Barry←▼M. Schleef

Eintracht Braunsch U19 substitutes

BürgerMittelstädtBarryTheocharisGüvenLuxHeike

Manager: T. Reis

71'▲R. Tachie←▼M. Klump

78'▲C. Herrmann←▼J. Yeboah

90'▲A. El-Haibi←▼D. Nieland

Wolfsburg U19 substitutes

TachieHerrmannEl-HaibiBrandtMarxPolatJanke

U19 Bundesliga: Eintracht Braunsch U19 1–2 Wolfsburg U19

Wolfsburg U19 beat Eintracht Braunsch U19 2-1 in U19 Bundesliga on September 23, 2017.

Goals: D. Nieland (27'), A. Vojtenko (70'), C. Herrmann (90+2').

The match was played at Sportpark Kennel in Braunschweig.

Eintracht Braunsch U19 vs Wolfsburg U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Eintracht Braunsch U19 1–2 Wolfsburg U19