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Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna — Bundesliga 2018

Wolfsberger AC
Wolfsberger AC
Preview
15:00
Austria Vienna
Austria Vienna
8/2/2026BundesligaBundesliga · Round 1Lavanttal-Arena
Big match
38%
Austria Vienna
model favours
35%27%38%

Wolfsberger AC are unbeaten in 8 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
55%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Wolfsberger AC35%
×Draw27%
Austria Vienna38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wolfsberger AC
1.21
Austria Vienna
1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

creates per match

Wolfsberger AC
1.02
Austria Vienna
1.26

allows per match

Wolfsberger AC
1.26
Austria Vienna
1.39

finishing

Wolfsberger AC-0.02on par
Austria Vienna+0.19scores more

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wolfsberger AC ↓

Austria Vienna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Wolfsberger AC or draw
62%
Wolfsberger AC or Austria Vienna
73%
Draw or Austria Vienna
65%

Winning margin

Wolfsberger AC wins by 2+
15%
Austria Vienna wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Wolfsberger AC 1+ goals
70%
Wolfsberger AC 2+ goals
34%
Wolfsberger AC 3+ goals
12%
Austria Vienna 1+ goals
72%
Austria Vienna 2+ goals
36%
Austria Vienna 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Wolfsberger AC (draw refunded)
48%
Austria Vienna (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wolfsberger AC at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.26 · 11 matches

Austria Vienna away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.39 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wolfsberger AC attack 1.02 + Austria Vienna defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.21

Austria Vienna attack 1.26 + Wolfsberger AC defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Wolfsberger AC scores more
35%
level
27%
Austria Vienna scores more
38%

Austria Vienna at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Austria Vienna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Wolfsberger AC raise their game against the top half — 41% wins vs the upper half, only 28% vs the lower
  • Wolfsberger AC outscore their xG (1.7 vs 1.1 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Wolfsberger AC
Balanced
Austria Vienna
Balanced
49%Possession52%
73%Pass accuracy74%
12.0Shots12.7
1.07xGBiggest gap1.29
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Wolfsberger ACAustria Vienna

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

4
Wolfsberger AC
1
Draws
5
Austria Vienna
Avg goals: 2.2BTTS: 40%
2–12–01–20–00–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
AC
WWWDD
Vienna
WWDDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Wolfsberger AC face Austria Vienna (Bundesliga)

Bundesliga returns with Wolfsberger AC hosting Austria Vienna. Match starts August 2, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Wolfsberger AC host Austria Vienna at Lavanttal-Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.