Wolfsberger AC 2–1 Austria Vienna: Result & Stats

Wolfsberger AC

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Austria Vienna

A. Schopf 21'

D. Avdijaj 17'

Lee Tae-Seok 73'

12/7/2025

Bundesliga · Round 16Lavanttal-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 130+ matches

Wolfsberger AC38%

×Draw25%

Austria Vienna37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wolfsberger ACExpected goals in this matchAustria Vienna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.43

Wolfsberger AC

1.47

Austria Vienna

1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 130 home / 133 away

1.58

creates per match

1.34

1.51

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Wolfsberger AC

1.58

Austria Vienna

1.34

allows per match

Wolfsberger AC

1.51

Austria Vienna

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wolfsberger AC+0.00on par

Austria Vienna+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wolfsberger AC ↓

Austria Vienna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Wolfsberger AC or draw

63%

Wolfsberger AC or Austria Vienna

75%

Draw or Austria Vienna

62%

Winning margin

Wolfsberger AC wins by 2+

18%

Austria Vienna wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Wolfsberger AC 1+ goals

77%

Wolfsberger AC 2+ goals

43%

Wolfsberger AC 3+ goals

18%

Austria Vienna 1+ goals

76%

Austria Vienna 2+ goals

42%

Austria Vienna 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Wolfsberger AC (draw refunded)

51%

Austria Vienna (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wolfsberger AC at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.51 · 130 matches

Austria Vienna away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.35 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wolfsberger AC attack 1.58 + Austria Vienna defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.47

Austria Vienna attack 1.34 + Wolfsberger AC defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Wolfsberger AC scores more

38%

level

25%

Austria Vienna scores more

37%

Wolfsberger AC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Wolfsberger AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

D. Avdijaj

Wolfsberger AC · F

8.6

Match Events

17'

D. Avdijaj↳ D. Zukic

21'

A. Schopf↳ D. Avdijaj

38'

E. Agyeman← A. Schopf

51'

Philipp Wiesinger

55'

Chibuike Nwaiwu

58'

K. Boateng← P. Maybach

60'

Chibuike Nwaiwu

60'

Chibuike Nwaiwu

62'

Tin Plavotić

65'

S. Piesinger← M. Pink

70'

M. Raguz← Lee Kang-Hee

73'

Lee Tae-Seok

78'

E. Kojzek← D. Avdijaj

87'

M. Osterreicher← R. Ranftl

87'

M. Schablas← Lee Tae-Seok

90+4'

Simon Piesinger

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WolfsbergerAustria

Overview

46%Possession54%

6Total Shots11

1.74Expected Goals (xG)1.15

5Corners6

11Fouls9

Shots

6Total Shots11

4On Target6

1Off Target5

1Blocked0

4Inside Box9

2Outside Box2

Passing

46%Possession54%

453Total Passes523

370Accurate Passes445

82%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls9

3Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

4Offsides3