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Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna — Bundesliga 2018

Wolfsberger AC
Wolfsberger AC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Austria Vienna
Austria Vienna
11/26/2023BundesligaBundesliga · Round 15Lavanttal Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 130+ matches

Wolfsberger AC39%
×Draw25%
Austria Vienna37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wolfsberger AC
1.48
Austria Vienna
1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 130 home / 134 away

creates per match

Wolfsberger AC
1.58
Austria Vienna
1.34

allows per match

Wolfsberger AC
1.51
Austria Vienna
1.37

finishing

Wolfsberger AC+0.00on par
Austria Vienna+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wolfsberger AC ↓

Austria Vienna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Wolfsberger AC or draw
63%
Wolfsberger AC or Austria Vienna
75%
Draw or Austria Vienna
61%

Winning margin

Wolfsberger AC wins by 2+
19%
Austria Vienna wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Wolfsberger AC 1+ goals
77%
Wolfsberger AC 2+ goals
43%
Wolfsberger AC 3+ goals
19%
Austria Vienna 1+ goals
76%
Austria Vienna 2+ goals
42%
Austria Vienna 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Wolfsberger AC (draw refunded)
51%
Austria Vienna (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wolfsberger AC at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.51 · 130 matches

Austria Vienna away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.37 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wolfsberger AC attack 1.58 + Austria Vienna defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.48

Austria Vienna attack 1.34 + Wolfsberger AC defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Wolfsberger AC scores more
39%
level
25%
Austria Vienna scores more
37%

Wolfsberger AC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Wolfsberger AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna

Wolfsberger AC beat Austria Vienna 1-0 in Bundesliga on November 26, 2023.

The match was played at Lavanttal Arena in Wolfsberg.