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WIT Georgia vs Chikhura Sachkhere — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

WIT Georgia
WIT Georgia
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Chikhura Sachkhere
Chikhura Sachkhere
4/29/2021Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 10Gldanis Safekhburto Tsentri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

WIT Georgia62%
×Draw21%
Chikhura Sachkhere16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

WIT Georgia
1.95
Chikhura Sachkhere
0.88

WIT Georgia creates 122% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 18 away

creates per match

WIT Georgia
1.29
Chikhura Sachkhere
0.44

allows per match

WIT Georgia
1.32
Chikhura Sachkhere
2.61

finishing

WIT Georgia+0.00on par
Chikhura Sachkhere+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

WIT Georgia ↓

Chikhura Sachkhere →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

WIT Georgia or draw
84%
WIT Georgia or Chikhura Sachkhere
79%
Draw or Chikhura Sachkhere
38%

Winning margin

WIT Georgia wins by 2+
38%
Chikhura Sachkhere wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

WIT Georgia 1+ goals
86%
WIT Georgia 2+ goals
58%
WIT Georgia 3+ goals
31%
Chikhura Sachkhere 1+ goals
59%
Chikhura Sachkhere 2+ goals
22%
Chikhura Sachkhere 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

WIT Georgia (draw refunded)
79%
Chikhura Sachkhere (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

WIT Georgia at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.32 · 72 matches

Chikhura Sachkhere away — creates 0.44, concedes 2.61 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

WIT Georgia attack 1.29 + Chikhura Sachkhere defence 2.61 → ÷2 → 1.95

Chikhura Sachkhere attack 0.44 + WIT Georgia defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

WIT Georgia scores more
62%
level
21%
Chikhura Sachkhere scores more
16%

WIT Georgia at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "WIT Georgia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: WIT Georgia vs Chikhura Sachkhere

WIT Georgia beat Chikhura Sachkhere 1-0 in Erovnuli Liga 2 on April 29, 2021.

The match was played at Gldanis Safekhburto Tsentri in Tbilisi.