Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Chikhura Sachkhere vs WIT Georgia — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Chikhura Sachkhere
Chikhura Sachkhere
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
WIT Georgia
WIT Georgia
6/27/2021Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 19Tsentraluri Stadioni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Chikhura Sachkhere24%
×Draw22%
WIT Georgia54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chikhura Sachkhere
1.30
WIT Georgia
2.02

WIT Georgia creates 55% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 74 away

creates per match

Chikhura Sachkhere
0.89
WIT Georgia
1.22

allows per match

Chikhura Sachkhere
2.83
WIT Georgia
1.72

finishing

Chikhura Sachkhere+0.00on par
WIT Georgia+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chikhura Sachkhere ↓

WIT Georgia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Chikhura Sachkhere or draw
46%
Chikhura Sachkhere or WIT Georgia
78%
Draw or WIT Georgia
76%

Winning margin

Chikhura Sachkhere wins by 2+
10%
WIT Georgia wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Chikhura Sachkhere 1+ goals
73%
Chikhura Sachkhere 2+ goals
37%
Chikhura Sachkhere 3+ goals
14%
WIT Georgia 1+ goals
87%
WIT Georgia 2+ goals
60%
WIT Georgia 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Chikhura Sachkhere (draw refunded)
31%
WIT Georgia (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chikhura Sachkhere at home — creates 0.89, concedes 2.83 · 18 matches

WIT Georgia away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.72 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chikhura Sachkhere attack 0.89 + WIT Georgia defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.30

WIT Georgia attack 1.22 + Chikhura Sachkhere defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Chikhura Sachkhere scores more
24%
level
22%
WIT Georgia scores more
54%

WIT Georgia at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "WIT Georgia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Erovnuli Liga 2: Chikhura Sachkhere 1–1 WIT Georgia

Chikhura Sachkhere and WIT Georgia drew 1-1 in Erovnuli Liga 2 on June 27, 2021.

The match was played at Tsentraluri Stadioni in Ivantsminda.