Chikhura Sachkhere 2–1 WIT Georgia: Result & Stats

Chikhura Sachkhere

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

WIT Georgia

G. Koripadze 90' (pen), 2' (pen)

Z. Museliani 70' (pen)

10/6/2019

Erovnuli Liga · Round 30Tsentraluri Stadioni (Ivantsminda)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Chikhura Sachkhere49%

×Draw26%

WIT Georgia26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chikhura SachkhereExpected goals in this matchWIT Georgia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.04

Chikhura Sachkhere

1.54

WIT Georgia

1.04

Chikhura Sachkhere creates 48% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 10 away

1.48

creates per match

0.50

1.58

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Chikhura Sachkhere

1.48

WIT Georgia

0.50

allows per match

Chikhura Sachkhere

1.58

WIT Georgia

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chikhura Sachkhere+0.00on par

WIT Georgia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chikhura Sachkhere ↓

WIT Georgia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Chikhura Sachkhere or draw

74%

Chikhura Sachkhere or WIT Georgia

74%

Draw or WIT Georgia

51%

Winning margin

Chikhura Sachkhere wins by 2+

25%

WIT Georgia wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Chikhura Sachkhere 1+ goals

79%

Chikhura Sachkhere 2+ goals

45%

Chikhura Sachkhere 3+ goals

20%

WIT Georgia 1+ goals

65%

WIT Georgia 2+ goals

28%

WIT Georgia 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Chikhura Sachkhere (draw refunded)

66%

WIT Georgia (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chikhura Sachkhere at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.58 · 31 matches

WIT Georgia away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.60 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chikhura Sachkhere attack 1.48 + WIT Georgia defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.54

WIT Georgia attack 0.50 + Chikhura Sachkhere defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Chikhura Sachkhere scores more

49%

level

26%

WIT Georgia scores more

26%

Chikhura Sachkhere at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Chikhura Sachkhere will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

G. KoripadzePenalty

53'

T. Markozashvili← D. Chikhladze

55'

R. Chiteishvili← D. Megrelishvili

58'

L. Janelidze← L. Nanobashvili

58'

G. Vazagashvili← L. Tatkhashvili

70'

Z. MuselianiPenalty

76'

T. Markozashvili

77'

G. Pantsulaia← I. Lekvtadze

85'

L. Chikvaidze

87'

Z. Natchkebia← T. Makatsaria

90'

Z. Natchkebia

90'

G. KoripadzePenalty

Chikhura

WIT

12

Isergishv

20

Chitishvi

22

▼

28

24

2

5

14

30

▼

Nanobashv

10

▼

Makatsari

15

⚽

30

37

8

24

25

▼

Megrelish

17

Dekanoidz

10

▼

Lekvtadze

15

⚽2

Koripadze

23

▼

Chikhladz

11

Mumladze

21

Sardalish

Manager: S. Pruidze

53'▲T. Markozashvili←▼D. Chikhladze

55'▲R. Chiteishvili←▼D. Megrelishvili

77'▲G. Pantsulaia←▼I. Lekvtadze

Chikhura Sachkhere substitutes

7Markozashvili2Chiteishvili14Pantsulaia3Kamladze6Mamasakhlisi13Mtskerashvili26Ardazishvili

Manager: V. Khachidze

58'▲L. Janelidze←▼L. Nanobashvili

58'▲G. Vazagashvili←▼L. Tatkhashvili

87'▲Z. Natchkebia←▼T. Makatsaria

WIT Georgia substitutes

3Janelidze8Vazagashvili23Natchkebia11Khutsianidze31Kavtaradze

Erovnuli Liga: Chikhura Sachkhere 2–1 WIT Georgia

Chikhura Sachkhere beat WIT Georgia 2-1 in Erovnuli Liga on October 6, 2019.

Goals: G. Koripadze (2' pen, 90' pen), Z. Museliani (70' pen).

The match was played at Tsentraluri Stadioni (Ivantsminda).

Chikhura Sachkhere vs WIT Georgia — Erovnuli Liga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Erovnuli Liga: Chikhura Sachkhere 2–1 WIT Georgia