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Wisla Plock vs Lechia Gdansk — Ekstraklasa 2018

Wisla Plock
Wisla Plock
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Lechia Gdansk
Lechia Gdansk
4/10/2026EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 28Orlen Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Wisla Plock43%
×Draw23%
Lechia Gdansk33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wisla Plock
1.74
Lechia Gdansk
1.50

Wisla Plock creates 16% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

creates per match

Wisla Plock
1.73
Lechia Gdansk
1.89

allows per match

Wisla Plock
1.12
Lechia Gdansk
1.75

finishing

Wisla Plock-0.48scores less
Lechia Gdansk-0.49scores less

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wisla Plock ↓

Lechia Gdansk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Wisla Plock or draw
67%
Wisla Plock or Lechia Gdansk
77%
Draw or Lechia Gdansk
57%

Winning margin

Wisla Plock wins by 2+
23%
Lechia Gdansk wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Wisla Plock 1+ goals
82%
Wisla Plock 2+ goals
52%
Wisla Plock 3+ goals
25%
Lechia Gdansk 1+ goals
78%
Lechia Gdansk 2+ goals
44%
Lechia Gdansk 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Wisla Plock (draw refunded)
57%
Lechia Gdansk (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wisla Plock at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.12 · 8 matches

Lechia Gdansk away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.75 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wisla Plock attack 1.73 + Lechia Gdansk defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.74

Lechia Gdansk attack 1.89 + Wisla Plock defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Wisla Plock scores more
43%
level
23%
Lechia Gdansk scores more
33%

Wisla Plock at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Wisla Plock will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wisla Plock vs Lechia Gdansk

Wisla Plock beat Lechia Gdansk 1-0 in Ekstraklasa on April 10, 2026.

The match was played at Orlen Stadion in Plock.