Wisla Plock 1–1 Lechia Gdansk: Result & Stats

Wisla Plock

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Lechia Gdansk

8/4/2023

I Liga · Round 3Orlen Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Wisla Plock50%

×Draw24%

Lechia Gdansk26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wisla PlockExpected goals in this matchLechia Gdansk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.16

Wisla Plock

1.70

Lechia Gdansk

1.16

Wisla Plock creates 47% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 17 away

1.86

creates per match

1.35

0.97

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Wisla Plock

1.86

Lechia Gdansk

1.35

allows per match

Wisla Plock

0.97

Lechia Gdansk

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wisla Plock+0.00on par

Lechia Gdansk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wisla Plock ↓

Lechia Gdansk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Wisla Plock or draw

74%

Wisla Plock or Lechia Gdansk

76%

Draw or Lechia Gdansk

50%

Winning margin

Wisla Plock wins by 2+

27%

Lechia Gdansk wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Wisla Plock 1+ goals

82%

Wisla Plock 2+ goals

51%

Wisla Plock 3+ goals

24%

Lechia Gdansk 1+ goals

69%

Lechia Gdansk 2+ goals

32%

Lechia Gdansk 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Wisla Plock (draw refunded)

66%

Lechia Gdansk (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wisla Plock at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.97 · 36 matches

Lechia Gdansk away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wisla Plock attack 1.86 + Lechia Gdansk defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.70

Lechia Gdansk attack 1.35 + Wisla Plock defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Wisla Plock scores more

50%

level

24%

Lechia Gdansk scores more

26%

Wisla Plock at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Wisla Plock will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff