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Lechia Gdansk vs Wisla Plock — Ekstraklasa 2018

Lechia Gdansk
Lechia Gdansk
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Wisla Plock
Wisla Plock
10/3/2025EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 11Polsat Plus Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

Lechia Gdansk48%
×Draw25%
Wisla Plock28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lechia Gdansk
1.63
Wisla Plock
1.19

Lechia Gdansk creates 37% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 103 away

creates per match

Lechia Gdansk
1.48
Wisla Plock
1.21

allows per match

Lechia Gdansk
1.16
Wisla Plock
1.77

finishing

Lechia Gdansk+0.00on par
Wisla Plock+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lechia Gdansk ↓

Wisla Plock →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Lechia Gdansk or draw
72%
Lechia Gdansk or Wisla Plock
75%
Draw or Wisla Plock
52%

Winning margin

Lechia Gdansk wins by 2+
25%
Wisla Plock wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Lechia Gdansk 1+ goals
80%
Lechia Gdansk 2+ goals
48%
Lechia Gdansk 3+ goals
22%
Wisla Plock 1+ goals
70%
Wisla Plock 2+ goals
33%
Wisla Plock 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Lechia Gdansk (draw refunded)
63%
Wisla Plock (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lechia Gdansk at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.16 · 120 matches

Wisla Plock away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.77 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lechia Gdansk attack 1.48 + Wisla Plock defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.63

Wisla Plock attack 1.21 + Lechia Gdansk defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Lechia Gdansk scores more
48%
level
25%
Wisla Plock scores more
28%

Lechia Gdansk at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Lechia Gdansk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lechia Gdansk vs Wisla Plock

Lechia Gdansk and Wisla Plock drew 1-1 in Ekstraklasa on October 3, 2025.

The match was played at Polsat Plus Arena in Gdansk.