Wisla Krakow 3–4 Lechia Gdansk: Result & Stats

Wisla Krakow

FT

3 – 4

HT: 2 – 2

Lechia Gdansk

5/11/2024

I Liga · Round 32Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Wisla Krakow50%

×Draw23%

Lechia Gdansk26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wisla KrakowExpected goals in this matchLechia Gdansk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.22

Wisla Krakow

1.77

Lechia Gdansk

1.22

Wisla Krakow creates 45% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 17 away

2.00

creates per match

1.35

1.09

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Wisla Krakow

2.00

Lechia Gdansk

1.35

allows per match

Wisla Krakow

1.09

Lechia Gdansk

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wisla Krakow+0.00on par

Lechia Gdansk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wisla Krakow ↓

Lechia Gdansk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Wisla Krakow or draw

74%

Wisla Krakow or Lechia Gdansk

77%

Draw or Lechia Gdansk

50%

Winning margin

Wisla Krakow wins by 2+

27%

Lechia Gdansk wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Wisla Krakow 1+ goals

83%

Wisla Krakow 2+ goals

53%

Wisla Krakow 3+ goals

26%

Lechia Gdansk 1+ goals

70%

Lechia Gdansk 2+ goals

34%

Lechia Gdansk 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Wisla Krakow (draw refunded)

66%

Lechia Gdansk (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wisla Krakow at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.09 · 70 matches

Lechia Gdansk away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wisla Krakow attack 2.00 + Lechia Gdansk defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.77

Lechia Gdansk attack 1.35 + Wisla Krakow defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Wisla Krakow scores more

50%

level

23%

Lechia Gdansk scores more

26%

Wisla Krakow at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Wisla Krakow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff