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Wisla Krakow vs Lechia Gdansk — Ekstraklasa 2018

Wisla Krakow
Wisla Krakow
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Lechia Gdansk
Lechia Gdansk
9/12/2021EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 7Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Wisla Krakow44%
×Draw25%
Lechia Gdansk31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wisla Krakow
1.58
Lechia Gdansk
1.29

Wisla Krakow creates 22% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 120 away

creates per match

Wisla Krakow
1.49
Lechia Gdansk
1.27

allows per match

Wisla Krakow
1.32
Lechia Gdansk
1.68

finishing

Wisla Krakow+0.00on par
Lechia Gdansk+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wisla Krakow ↓

Lechia Gdansk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Wisla Krakow or draw
69%
Wisla Krakow or Lechia Gdansk
75%
Draw or Lechia Gdansk
56%

Winning margin

Wisla Krakow wins by 2+
22%
Lechia Gdansk wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Wisla Krakow 1+ goals
79%
Wisla Krakow 2+ goals
47%
Wisla Krakow 3+ goals
21%
Lechia Gdansk 1+ goals
72%
Lechia Gdansk 2+ goals
37%
Lechia Gdansk 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Wisla Krakow (draw refunded)
59%
Lechia Gdansk (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wisla Krakow at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.32 · 69 matches

Lechia Gdansk away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.68 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wisla Krakow attack 1.49 + Lechia Gdansk defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.58

Lechia Gdansk attack 1.27 + Wisla Krakow defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Wisla Krakow scores more
44%
level
25%
Lechia Gdansk scores more
31%

Wisla Krakow at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Wisla Krakow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wisla Krakow vs Lechia Gdansk

Wisla Krakow and Lechia Gdansk drew 2-2 in Ekstraklasa on September 12, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana in Kraków.