Lechia Gdansk 1–1 Wisla Krakow: Result & Stats

Lechia Gdansk

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Wisla Krakow

3/5/2022

Ekstraklasa · Round 24Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Lechia Gdansk48%

×Draw24%

Wisla Krakow28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lechia GdanskExpected goals in this matchWisla Krakow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.19

Lechia Gdansk

1.64

Wisla Krakow

1.19

Lechia Gdansk creates 38% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 69 away

1.48

creates per match

1.22

1.16

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Lechia Gdansk

1.48

Wisla Krakow

1.22

allows per match

Lechia Gdansk

1.16

Wisla Krakow

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lechia Gdansk+0.00on par

Wisla Krakow+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lechia Gdansk ↓

Wisla Krakow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Lechia Gdansk or draw

72%

Lechia Gdansk or Wisla Krakow

76%

Draw or Wisla Krakow

52%

Winning margin

Lechia Gdansk wins by 2+

25%

Wisla Krakow wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Lechia Gdansk 1+ goals

81%

Lechia Gdansk 2+ goals

49%

Lechia Gdansk 3+ goals

23%

Wisla Krakow 1+ goals

70%

Wisla Krakow 2+ goals

33%

Wisla Krakow 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Lechia Gdansk (draw refunded)

63%

Wisla Krakow (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lechia Gdansk at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.16 · 120 matches

Wisla Krakow away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.80 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lechia Gdansk attack 1.48 + Wisla Krakow defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.64

Wisla Krakow attack 1.22 + Lechia Gdansk defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Lechia Gdansk scores more

48%

level

24%

Wisla Krakow scores more

28%

Lechia Gdansk at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Lechia Gdansk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff