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Wisła Puławy vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg — II Liga - East 2019

Wisła Puławy
Wisła Puławy
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
2/25/2023II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 20Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Wisła Puławy50%
×Draw24%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wisła Puławy
1.69
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
1.15

Wisła Puławy creates 47% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 17 away

creates per match

Wisła Puławy
1.49
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
1.00

allows per match

Wisła Puławy
1.29
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
1.88

finishing

Wisła Puławy+0.00on par
Siarka Tarnobrzeg+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wisła Puławy ↓

Siarka Tarnobrzeg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Wisła Puławy or draw
74%
Wisła Puławy or Siarka Tarnobrzeg
76%
Draw or Siarka Tarnobrzeg
50%

Winning margin

Wisła Puławy wins by 2+
27%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Wisła Puławy 1+ goals
82%
Wisła Puławy 2+ goals
50%
Wisła Puławy 3+ goals
24%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg 1+ goals
68%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg 2+ goals
32%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Wisła Puławy (draw refunded)
66%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wisła Puławy at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.29 · 68 matches

Siarka Tarnobrzeg away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wisła Puławy attack 1.49 + Siarka Tarnobrzeg defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.69

Siarka Tarnobrzeg attack 1.00 + Wisła Puławy defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Wisła Puławy scores more
50%
level
24%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg scores more
26%

Wisła Puławy at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Wisła Puławy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wisła Puławy vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg

Wisła Puławy and Siarka Tarnobrzeg drew 0-0 in II Liga - East on February 25, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR in Puławy.