Wisła Puławy 1–0 Siarka Tarnobrzeg: Result & Stats

Wisła Puławy

FT

1 – 0

Siarka Tarnobrzeg

E. Furtado 88'

5/12/2021

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 29Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Wisła Puławy57%

×Draw21%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wisła PuławyExpected goals in this matchSiarka Tarnobrzeg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.09

1.22

Wisła Puławy

2.09

Siarka Tarnobrzeg

1.22

Wisła Puławy creates 71% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 89 away

2.90

creates per match

1.53

0.90

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Wisła Puławy

2.90

Siarka Tarnobrzeg

1.53

allows per match

Wisła Puławy

0.90

Siarka Tarnobrzeg

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wisła Puławy+0.00on par

Siarka Tarnobrzeg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wisła Puławy ↓

Siarka Tarnobrzeg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Wisła Puławy or draw

78%

Wisła Puławy or Siarka Tarnobrzeg

79%

Draw or Siarka Tarnobrzeg

43%

Winning margin

Wisła Puławy wins by 2+

35%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Wisła Puławy 1+ goals

88%

Wisła Puławy 2+ goals

62%

Wisła Puławy 3+ goals

34%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg 1+ goals

70%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg 2+ goals

34%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Wisła Puławy (draw refunded)

72%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wisła Puławy at home — creates 2.90, concedes 0.90 · 20 matches

Siarka Tarnobrzeg away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.29 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wisła Puławy attack 2.90 + Siarka Tarnobrzeg defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 2.09

Siarka Tarnobrzeg attack 1.53 + Wisła Puławy defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Wisła Puławy scores more

57%

level

21%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg scores more

22%

Wisła Puławy at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Wisła Puławy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

88'

E. Furtado

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff