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Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs Wisła Puławy — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Siarka Tarnobrzeg
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
FT
2 – 1
Wisła Puławy
Wisła Puławy
9/5/2020III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 8Stadion OSiR Wisła

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Siarka Tarnobrzeg35%
×Draw24%
Wisła Puławy40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Siarka Tarnobrzeg
1.45
Wisła Puławy
1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 87 home / 20 away

creates per match

Siarka Tarnobrzeg
2.25
Wisła Puławy
2.10

allows per match

Siarka Tarnobrzeg
1.03
Wisła Puławy
0.65

finishing

Siarka Tarnobrzeg+0.00on par
Wisła Puławy+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Siarka Tarnobrzeg ↓

Wisła Puławy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Siarka Tarnobrzeg or draw
60%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg or Wisła Puławy
76%
Draw or Wisła Puławy
65%

Winning margin

Siarka Tarnobrzeg wins by 2+
17%
Wisła Puławy wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Siarka Tarnobrzeg 1+ goals
77%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg 2+ goals
42%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg 3+ goals
18%
Wisła Puławy 1+ goals
79%
Wisła Puławy 2+ goals
46%
Wisła Puławy 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Siarka Tarnobrzeg (draw refunded)
47%
Wisła Puławy (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Siarka Tarnobrzeg at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.03 · 87 matches

Wisła Puławy away — creates 2.10, concedes 0.65 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Siarka Tarnobrzeg attack 2.25 + Wisła Puławy defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 1.45

Wisła Puławy attack 2.10 + Siarka Tarnobrzeg defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Siarka Tarnobrzeg scores more
35%
level
24%
Wisła Puławy scores more
40%

Wisła Puławy at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Wisła Puławy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Siarka Tarnobrzeg 2–1 Wisła Puławy

Siarka Tarnobrzeg beat Wisła Puławy 2-1 in III Liga - Group 4 on September 5, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion OSiR Wisła in Tarnobrzeg.