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Wisła Puławy vs Avia Świdnik — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Wisła Puławy
Wisła Puławy
FT
4 – 5
HT: 2 – 3
Avia Świdnik
Avia Świdnik
M. Ponce 76'
D. Babor 70'
K. Szymanek 31' (pen)
K. Kumoch 13' (pen)
J. Zagorski 81'
W. Marek 74'
A. Paluchowski 36'
D. Assuncao 19'
P. Uliczny 6' (pen)
2/1/2025Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Wisła Puławy61%
×Draw17%
Avia Świdnik22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wisła Puławy
2.90
Avia Świdnik
1.73

Wisła Puławy creates 68% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Wisła Puławy
2.80
Avia Świdnik
2.25

allows per match

Wisła Puławy
1.20
Avia Świdnik
3.00

finishing

Wisła Puławy+0.00on par
Avia Świdnik+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wisła Puławy ↓

Avia Świdnik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–24%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
84%16%3.5
67%33%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

Wisła Puławy or draw
78%
Wisła Puławy or Avia Świdnik
83%
Draw or Avia Świdnik
39%

Winning margin

Wisła Puławy wins by 2+
41%
Avia Świdnik wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Wisła Puławy 1+ goals
94%
Wisła Puławy 2+ goals
78%
Wisła Puławy 3+ goals
54%
Avia Świdnik 1+ goals
82%
Avia Świdnik 2+ goals
52%
Avia Świdnik 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Wisła Puławy (draw refunded)
74%
Avia Świdnik (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wisła Puławy at home — creates 2.80, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Avia Świdnik away — creates 2.25, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wisła Puławy attack 2.80 + Avia Świdnik defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.90

Avia Świdnik attack 2.25 + Wisła Puławy defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Wisła Puławy scores more
61%
level
17%
Avia Świdnik scores more
22%

Wisła Puławy at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Wisła Puławy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
P. UlicznyPenalty
13'
K. KumochPenalty
19'
D. Assuncao
31'
K. SzymanekPenalty
36'
A. Paluchowski
70'
D. Babor
74'
W. Marek
76'
M. Ponce
81'
J. Zagorski
Wisła
Avia
M. Tokarczyk
Manager: M. Tokarczyk
W. Szacoń
Manager: W. Szacoń

Friendlies Clubs: Wisła Puławy 4–5 Avia Świdnik

Avia Świdnik beat Wisła Puławy 5-4 in Friendlies Clubs on February 1, 2025.

Goals: P. Uliczny (6' pen), K. Kumoch (13' pen), D. Assuncao (19'), K. Szymanek (31' pen), A. Paluchowski (36'), D. Babor (70'), W. Marek (74'), M. Ponce (76'), J. Zagorski (81').