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Avia Świdnik vs Wisła Puławy — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Avia Świdnik
Avia Świdnik
FT
1 – 1
Wisła Puławy
Wisła Puławy
11/11/2020III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 19Stadion Świdnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Avia Świdnik36%
×Draw24%
Wisła Puławy40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avia Świdnik
1.45
Wisła Puławy
1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 105 home / 20 away

creates per match

Avia Świdnik
2.24
Wisła Puławy
2.10

allows per match

Avia Świdnik
0.98
Wisła Puławy
0.65

finishing

Avia Świdnik+0.00on par
Wisła Puławy+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avia Świdnik ↓

Wisła Puławy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Avia Świdnik or draw
60%
Avia Świdnik or Wisła Puławy
76%
Draw or Wisła Puławy
64%

Winning margin

Avia Świdnik wins by 2+
17%
Wisła Puławy wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Avia Świdnik 1+ goals
77%
Avia Świdnik 2+ goals
42%
Avia Świdnik 3+ goals
18%
Wisła Puławy 1+ goals
79%
Wisła Puławy 2+ goals
45%
Wisła Puławy 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Avia Świdnik (draw refunded)
47%
Wisła Puławy (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avia Świdnik at home — creates 2.24, concedes 0.98 · 105 matches

Wisła Puławy away — creates 2.10, concedes 0.65 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avia Świdnik attack 2.24 + Wisła Puławy defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 1.45

Wisła Puławy attack 2.10 + Avia Świdnik defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Avia Świdnik scores more
36%
level
24%
Wisła Puławy scores more
40%

Wisła Puławy at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Wisła Puławy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Avia Świdnik vs Wisła Puławy

Avia Świdnik and Wisła Puławy drew 1-1 in III Liga - Group 4 on November 11, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Świdnik in Świdnik.