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Wisła Puławy vs Avia Świdnik — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Wisła Puławy
Wisła Puławy
FT
1 – 0
Avia Świdnik
Avia Świdnik
E. Furtado 88'
6/5/2021III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 40Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Wisła Puławy52%
×Draw22%
Avia Świdnik27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wisła Puławy
2.01
Avia Świdnik
1.40

Wisła Puławy creates 44% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 104 away

creates per match

Wisła Puławy
2.90
Avia Świdnik
1.89

allows per match

Wisła Puławy
0.90
Avia Świdnik
1.12

finishing

Wisła Puławy+0.00on par
Avia Świdnik+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wisła Puławy ↓

Avia Świdnik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Wisła Puławy or draw
73%
Wisła Puławy or Avia Świdnik
78%
Draw or Avia Świdnik
48%

Winning margin

Wisła Puławy wins by 2+
30%
Avia Świdnik wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Wisła Puławy 1+ goals
87%
Wisła Puławy 2+ goals
59%
Wisła Puławy 3+ goals
32%
Avia Świdnik 1+ goals
75%
Avia Świdnik 2+ goals
41%
Avia Świdnik 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Wisła Puławy (draw refunded)
66%
Avia Świdnik (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wisła Puławy at home — creates 2.90, concedes 0.90 · 20 matches

Avia Świdnik away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.12 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wisła Puławy attack 2.90 + Avia Świdnik defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 2.01

Avia Świdnik attack 1.89 + Wisła Puławy defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Wisła Puławy scores more
52%
level
22%
Avia Świdnik scores more
27%

Wisła Puławy at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Wisła Puławy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

88'
E. Furtado

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Wisła Puławy 1–0 Avia Świdnik

Wisła Puławy beat Avia Świdnik 1-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on June 5, 2021.

Goals: E. Furtado (88').

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR in Puławy.