Dundela 1–2 Carrick Rangers: Result & Stats

Dundela

FT

1 – 2

Carrick Rangers

4/20/2019

League #407 · Promotion Round - 9Wilgar Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Dundela27%

×Draw23%

Carrick Rangers50%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DundelaExpected goals in this matchCarrick Rangers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.77

Dundela

1.25

Carrick Rangers

1.77

Carrick Rangers creates 42% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 5 away

1.50

creates per match

1.60

1.94

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Dundela

1.50

Carrick Rangers

1.60

allows per match

Dundela

1.94

Carrick Rangers

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dundela+0.00on par

Carrick Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dundela ↓

Carrick Rangers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Dundela or draw

50%

Dundela or Carrick Rangers

77%

Draw or Carrick Rangers

73%

Winning margin

Dundela wins by 2+

11%

Carrick Rangers wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Dundela 1+ goals

71%

Dundela 2+ goals

36%

Dundela 3+ goals

13%

Carrick Rangers 1+ goals

83%

Carrick Rangers 2+ goals

53%

Carrick Rangers 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Dundela (draw refunded)

35%

Carrick Rangers (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dundela at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.94 · 16 matches

Carrick Rangers away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dundela attack 1.50 + Carrick Rangers defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Carrick Rangers attack 1.60 + Dundela defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Dundela scores more

27%

level

23%

Carrick Rangers scores more

50%

Carrick Rangers at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Carrick Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff