Carrick Rangers 2–3 Dundela: Result & Stats

Carrick Rangers

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Dundela

Unknown 60', 17'

Unknown 89', 81', 51'

8/2/2025

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Carrick Rangers67%

×Draw19%

Dundela14%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Carrick RangersExpected goals in this matchDundela

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

0.88

Carrick Rangers

2.17

Dundela

0.88

Carrick Rangers creates 147% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

2.33

creates per match

0.75

1.00

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Carrick Rangers

2.33

Dundela

0.75

allows per match

Carrick Rangers

1.00

Dundela

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carrick Rangers+0.00on par

Dundela+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carrick Rangers ↓

Dundela →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Carrick Rangers or draw

86%

Carrick Rangers or Dundela

81%

Draw or Dundela

33%

Winning margin

Carrick Rangers wins by 2+

43%

Dundela wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Carrick Rangers 1+ goals

89%

Carrick Rangers 2+ goals

64%

Carrick Rangers 3+ goals

36%

Dundela 1+ goals

59%

Dundela 2+ goals

22%

Dundela 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Carrick Rangers (draw refunded)

83%

Dundela (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carrick Rangers at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Dundela away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carrick Rangers attack 2.33 + Dundela defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.17

Dundela attack 0.75 + Carrick Rangers defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Carrick Rangers scores more

67%

level

19%

Dundela scores more

14%

Carrick Rangers at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Carrick Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

51'

60'

81'

89'

Carrick

Dundela

Manager: S. Baxter

Manager: S. Gourley