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Carrick Rangers vs Dundela — League #407 2026

Carrick Rangers
Carrick Rangers
FT
3 – 2
Dundela
Dundela
2/23/2019League #407League #407 · Promotion Round - 4Belfast Loughshore Hotel Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Carrick Rangers43%
×Draw23%
Dundela34%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carrick Rangers
1.81
Dundela
1.60

Carrick Rangers creates 13% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 14 away

creates per match

Carrick Rangers
1.75
Dundela
1.57

allows per match

Carrick Rangers
1.63
Dundela
1.86

finishing

Carrick Rangers+0.00on par
Dundela+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carrick Rangers ↓

Dundela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Carrick Rangers or draw
66%
Carrick Rangers or Dundela
77%
Draw or Dundela
57%

Winning margin

Carrick Rangers wins by 2+
23%
Dundela wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Carrick Rangers 1+ goals
84%
Carrick Rangers 2+ goals
54%
Carrick Rangers 3+ goals
27%
Dundela 1+ goals
80%
Dundela 2+ goals
47%
Dundela 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Carrick Rangers (draw refunded)
56%
Dundela (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carrick Rangers at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

Dundela away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carrick Rangers attack 1.75 + Dundela defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.81

Dundela attack 1.57 + Carrick Rangers defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Carrick Rangers scores more
43%
level
23%
Dundela scores more
34%

Carrick Rangers at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Carrick Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Carrick Rangers vs Dundela

Carrick Rangers beat Dundela 3-2 in League #407 on February 23, 2019.

The match was played at Belfast Loughshore Hotel Arena in Carrickfergus.