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Willem II vs Jong AZ — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Willem II
Willem II
CANC
12:00
Jong AZ
Jong AZ
7/22/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Willem II41%
×Draw23%
Jong AZ37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Willem II
1.75
Jong AZ
1.65

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 5 away

creates per match

Willem II
2.10
Jong AZ
1.80

allows per match

Willem II
1.50
Jong AZ
1.40

finishing

Willem II+0.00on par
Jong AZ+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Willem II ↓

Jong AZ →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Willem II or draw
63%
Willem II or Jong AZ
77%
Draw or Jong AZ
59%

Winning margin

Willem II wins by 2+
21%
Jong AZ wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Willem II 1+ goals
83%
Willem II 2+ goals
52%
Willem II 3+ goals
25%
Jong AZ 1+ goals
81%
Jong AZ 2+ goals
49%
Jong AZ 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Willem II (draw refunded)
53%
Jong AZ (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Willem II at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

Jong AZ away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Willem II attack 2.10 + Jong AZ defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.75

Jong AZ attack 1.80 + Willem II defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Willem II scores more
41%
level
23%
Jong AZ scores more
37%

Willem II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Willem II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Willem II vs Jong AZ — Match Preview

Willem II face Jong AZ on July 22, 2026 in this Friendlies Clubs fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.