Willem II 4–1 Jong AZ: Result & Stats

Willem II

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Jong AZ

M. de Leeuw 90+3'

J. Hilterman 53'

R. Nizet 35'

M. Svensson 24'

F. Stam 15'

4/12/2024

Eerste Divisie · Round 34Koning Willem II Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Willem II63%

×Draw20%

Jong AZ17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Willem IIExpected goals in this matchJong AZ

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.20

1.07

Willem II

2.20

Jong AZ

1.07

Willem II creates 106% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

2.25

creates per match

0.74

1.41

allows per match

2.15

creates per match

Willem II

2.25

Jong AZ

0.74

allows per match

Willem II

1.41

Jong AZ

2.15

-0.58scores less than expected

finishing

+0.59scores more than expected

finishing

Willem II-0.58scores less

Jong AZ+0.59scores more

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Willem II ↓

Jong AZ →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Willem II or draw

83%

Willem II or Jong AZ

80%

Draw or Jong AZ

37%

Winning margin

Willem II wins by 2+

40%

Jong AZ wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Willem II 1+ goals

89%

Willem II 2+ goals

64%

Willem II 3+ goals

37%

Jong AZ 1+ goals

66%

Jong AZ 2+ goals

29%

Jong AZ 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Willem II (draw refunded)

78%

Jong AZ (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Willem II at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.41 · 6 matches

Jong AZ away — creates 0.74, concedes 2.15 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Willem II attack 2.25 + Jong AZ defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.20

Jong AZ attack 0.74 + Willem II defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Willem II scores more

63%

level

20%

Jong AZ scores more

17%

Willem II at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Willem II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

J. Hilterman

Willem II · F

7.9

Match Events

15'

F. Stam↳ K. Smit

24'

M. Svensson↳ N. Doodeman

31'

35'

35'

44'

46'

M. Engel← J. Berkhout

52'

J. van Aken← Gonçalo Esteves

53'

J. Hilterman

65'

R. Kewal← J. Addai

66'

J. Oerip← T. Kerssens

66'

N. Koster← D. Reverson

76'

V. Vermeulen← N. Doodeman

76'

M. de Leeuw← T. Oosting

90+1'

Amine Lachkar

90+1'

Amine Lachkar

90+3'

R. Sigurgeirsson← M. Svensson

90+3'

M. de Waal← J. Hilterman

90+3'

M. de Leeuw↳ V. Vermeulen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WillemJong

Overview

38%Possession62%

14Total Shots16

4Corners7

16Fouls14

Shots

14Total Shots16

6On Target5

5Off Target7

3Blocked4

10Inside Box8

4Outside Box8

Passing

38%Possession62%

282Total Passes469

204Accurate Passes390

72%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

16Fouls14

3Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

1Offsides2