Willem II 3–0 Jong AZ: Result & Stats

Willem II

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Jong AZ

F. Stam 51'

S. Baartmans 14'

D. Haen 11'

4/17/2026

Eerste Divisie · Round 37Koning Willem II Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Willem II61%

×Draw20%

Jong AZ19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Willem IIExpected goals in this matchJong AZ

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

1.13

Willem II

2.17

Jong AZ

1.13

Willem II creates 92% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

2.25

creates per match

0.84

1.41

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Willem II

2.25

Jong AZ

0.84

allows per match

Willem II

1.41

Jong AZ

2.08

-0.58scores less than expected

finishing

+0.36scores more than expected

finishing

Willem II-0.58scores less

Jong AZ+0.36scores more

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Willem II ↓

Jong AZ →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Willem II or draw

81%

Willem II or Jong AZ

80%

Draw or Jong AZ

39%

Winning margin

Willem II wins by 2+

38%

Jong AZ wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Willem II 1+ goals

89%

Willem II 2+ goals

64%

Willem II 3+ goals

36%

Jong AZ 1+ goals

68%

Jong AZ 2+ goals

31%

Jong AZ 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Willem II (draw refunded)

76%

Jong AZ (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Willem II at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.41 · 6 matches

Jong AZ away — creates 0.84, concedes 2.08 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Willem II attack 2.25 + Jong AZ defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.17

Jong AZ attack 0.84 + Willem II defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Willem II scores more

61%

level

20%

Jong AZ scores more

19%

Willem II at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Willem II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

F. Stam

Willem II · D

8.0

Match Events

11'

D. Haen↳ N. Doodeman

14'

S. Baartmans↳ M. El Allouchi

46'

A. Smits← K. Toppenberg

46'

49'

51'

51'

56'

61'

68'

U. van Aalst← S. Baartmans

68'

A. Culum← N. Doodeman

75'

S. Bamba← C. Twigt

75'

J. Mathijsen← F. Stam

80'

D. van der Klaauw← W. Bouziane

85'

K. Scheepens← P. van Loon

86'

B. van Driel← J. Oerip

87'

Jesper Zwart

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WillemJong

Overview

42%Possession58%

19Total Shots20

1.98Expected Goals (xG)1.13

8Corners8

7Fouls10

Shots

19Total Shots20

6On Target3

5Off Target7

8Blocked10

8Inside Box10

11Outside Box10

Passing

42%Possession58%

338Total Passes477

287Accurate Passes417

85%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

7Fouls10

1Yellow Cards3

3Offsides1